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Asian currencies strengthened on Monday while the U.S. dollar edged lower, as investors shifted focus to upcoming policy meetings by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment remained cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly after the United States and Iran withdrew from talks over the weekend.
The Japanese yen showed modest gains, with the USD/JPY pair slipping below the key 160 level. The BOJ is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, although speculation persists around a possible 25 basis point hike. Investors are closely watching for a hawkish tone from the central bank, especially as inflation remains elevated and external pressures linked to the Iran conflict persist. However, if the BOJ adopts a softer stance than anticipated, the yen could face renewed pressure after recent volatility.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index dipped slightly in Asian trading after strong gains last week. The dollar had been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks and expectations of tighter global monetary policy. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, where rates are also expected to remain unchanged. Uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the Iran conflict continues to influence policy outlooks. Additionally, speculation over leadership changes at the Fed, including the potential confirmation of Kevin Warsh as chair, has added another layer of market interest.
Broader Asian foreign exchange markets saw gains as risk appetite improved slightly. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating openness to renewed negotiations with Iran provided some relief. Reports suggesting Iran may propose reopening the Strait of Hormuz also contributed to cautious optimism, despite unresolved nuclear issues.
The Australian dollar advanced on expectations of strong inflation data, which could support further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Chinese yuan remained near a three-year high ahead of key PMI data, while the South Korean won and Singapore dollar also strengthened. In contrast, the Indian rupee weakened, with USD/INR moving above 94.
