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Oil Prices Surge Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions and Strait of Hormuz Supply Concerns 
Global investment banks are raising their oil price forecasts for 2026 as ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to tighten the market. Goldman Sachs recently increased its outlook for crude oil, projecting that Brent crude will average around $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to reach $83 per barrel. The revision reflects slower-than-expected recovery in Gulf oil production and delays in the normalization of exports through the Strait of Hormuz, now anticipated by the end of June instead of mid-May.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and continued disruptions have heightened concerns about limited output. Oil prices edged higher recently as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled, further restricting shipments and keeping global supply tight.
Citi also raised its Brent crude oil forecast, expecting prices to average $110 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, $95 in the third quarter, and $80 in the fourth quarter. In a more bullish scenario, the bank predicts prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait persist through June.
Other financial institutions have echoed similar trends in their oil market outlooks. UBS noted that prolonged supply constraints could push prices above $150 per barrel, while ANZ forecasts Brent at $92 for 2026. Macquarie warned that extended geopolitical conflict could even drive oil prices toward $200 per barrel. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect Brent crude to remain above $80 throughout the year.
Despite varying projections, most analysts agree that geopolitical tensions, reduced oil production, and uncertainty in key shipping routes will play a major role in shaping crude oil prices. As the global energy market remains volatile, investors and policymakers continue to monitor developments in the Middle East closely.
