Energy price drag assumptions leave US CPI profile revised down
Dec 11, 2015 03:52 am UTC| Commentary
US CPI forecasts have been revised last month, since then the gasoline futures prices for delivery through September 2016 moved higher, while long-term futures prices dropped slightly. The crude oil futures prices,...
US Quarterly Services Survey leaves Q3 GDP tracking at 1.8%
Dec 11, 2015 03:39 am UTC| Commentary
In US, Census Bureau Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) for Q3 15, indicated modestly less spending over services and software than the assumptions in the second estimate of Q3 GDP.Second estimate of Q3 GDP reported that real...
Current flatness is the UST curve more consistent with the early stages of a Fed hike cycle
Dec 11, 2015 02:56 am UTC| Commentary
The UST curve is unusually flat given where we are on the monetary policy cycle. The 2Y/10Y spread has compressed from 265bps at the beginning of 2014 to 128bps currently. During the 2004/2006 cycle, this level of slope...
Asian currencies caught between weaker CNY and higher US rates
Dec 11, 2015 02:51 am UTC| Commentary
The central parity for USD/CNY was lifted, for the fourth straight session, by 96 bps to 6.4236 yesterday. Altogether, the central parity has been increased by a total 385 bps from 6.3851 from last Friday. According to the...
Expectations are high for November US retail sales
Dec 11, 2015 02:42 am UTC| Commentary
Expectations are high for November retail sales, due today. Maybe too high. More than one-fifth of all retail sales are autos and, in unit terms, they fell by half a percentage point in November. Nor were Black Friday...
India's production numbers due today
Dec 11, 2015 02:36 am UTC| Commentary
Oct industrial production data is due today and favourable base effects are likely to sharply lift the headline print. Oct IP is expected to rise 6.6% YoY from 3.6% the month before. Besides base effects, higher...
Fiscal spending is crucial for Indonesia's GDP growth outlook
Dec 11, 2015 02:25 am UTC| Commentary Economy
While GDP growth is expected to tick higher to 5.2% in 2016, and probably to around 5.5% in 2017, President Widodos target of 7% GDP growth by 2019 seems a stretch. That several members of the cabinet still talk about the...