Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging Market Crisis Series

BCB likely to increase selic rate in March meeting

Feb 02, 2016 10:29 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Brazils economic condition is likely to remain weak in near term as long as political crisis weigh on investment decisions and stimulate negative tone in the financial markets. Industrial production decreased nearly 8...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

South Korea’s exports ease in January, likely to remain weak in 2016

Feb 01, 2016 08:37 am UTC| Commentary

South Koreas exports in January declined 18.6% y/y, much lower than Barclays forecast of a decline of 12% and consensus expectation of a decline of 10.3%. This is the weakest exports data since August 2009. On a monthly...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Indian manufacturers continue facing structural challenges despite rise in January manufacturing PMI

Feb 01, 2016 06:46 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Indias January 2016 headline manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 from December 2015s 49.1. However, the headline PMI reading continues to be weak according to past standards. Indias local industry continues to face considerable...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Fitch criticises CBT’s delay in simplifying 3-rate corridor to one policy rate

Jan 26, 2016 09:00 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Turkey has been cautioned by Fitch that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkeys delay in simplifying the 3-rate corridor to only one policy rate gives a negative picture. According to the rating agency, the development...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Brazil’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate likely inched up to 8.3% in December

Jan 25, 2016 07:20 am UTC| Commentary

Brazils unemployment rate had increased unexpectedly in October to 7.9% and declined to 7.5% in November. The lack of considerable increase in unemployment during H2 2015 should not be understood at labor market...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

SARB likely to hike rate lower than market forecast

Jan 22, 2016 04:47 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The ZAR is expected to be weak in the near future, although lesser than what was witnessed in 2015. If South Africas local government elections are not disrupted and if the February budget is well received, the country...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Currency War Series

Brazil decision to keep rates on hold raises questions of independence

Jan 21, 2016 18:01 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) surprisingly left rates unchanged at 14.25% at yesterdays monetary policy meeting. The expectation had been for a rate hike of 50bp. The decision raises questions regarding the central banks...