Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Mexico’s core inflation likely to remain soft on MXN depreciation and labor market slack

Feb 10, 2016 05:57 am UTC| Commentary

Mexicos January CPI rose 0.38%, owing to a strong non-core data of 1% 2w/2w in the second half of the month due to higher vegetables and fruits prices. Meanwhile, core inflation eased 0.14% 2w/2w, mainly due to services...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Brazil’s IPCA inflation accelerates in January, likely to have downward trajectory in 2016

Feb 08, 2016 07:00 am UTC| Commentary

Brazils IPCA inflation accelerated 1.27% m/m in January from 0.96% in December. On a yearly basis, it remained at 10.7% in January. The unexpected rise was spread across the groups, with some concentration in the...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Russia’s January CPI inflation slows considerably over base effects, likely to accelerate slightly in Q2

Feb 08, 2016 05:08 am UTC| Commentary

Russias January 2016 CPI inflation decelerated greatly to 9.8% from 12.9% in December. The slowdown in the CPI inflation was mainly due to the base effects as monthly inflation accelerated 1%, equal to the 10-year average....

Currency War Series

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Bank of Mexico holds interest rate, peso’s recent depreciation major threat to inflation

Feb 05, 2016 06:43 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Bank of Mexico kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.25%, on par with expectations. The central bank, in its statement, acknowledges a decline in growth outlook, both domestically and globally, and looks at the recent...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Will Emerging Markets benefit from a cautious Fed?

Feb 03, 2016 15:15 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks Economy

The Fed is likely to tighten monetary policy only by as much as markets allow without major turmoil. The FOMC statement showed that the Fed takes the financial market turmoil and the development in China and other emerging...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Demographics likely to continue weighing on Russia’s potential growth

Feb 03, 2016 09:46 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Russias growth is likely to be pulled down due to demographics. The working-age population is likely to continue reducing by 0.3%-0.7% y/y. The participation rate is expected to decline due to ageing of population. A...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

FX Hedging Strategy Series

BRL gains momentary, debt to GDP still a concern – Stay short in USD/BRL FVAs

Feb 02, 2016 11:09 am UTC| Insights & Views

In last quarter, Fitch had downgraded Brazil, following the SPs decision in the summer. This is the second major agency to downgrade Brazil to below investment grade. We believe Moodys will follow and also that additional...