FxWirePro: Sterling Looks Weaker On Gloomy Economic & Geopolitical Surface – Deploy ‘Debit Call Spreads’ To Hedge

Aug 13, 2020 09:06 am UTC| Research & Analysis Economy Insights & Views

The Corona crisis has hit the British economy comparatively hard. In addition, Brexit risks remain high, which is why we assume that the pound will continue to remain weak against the euro. Given that the UK and EU...

FxWirePro: USD/RUB Drivers, Projections & Trade Updates

Aug 12, 2020 13:52 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks Insights & Views

The Russian rouble had weakened earlier in the spring, driven jointly by a collapse of the oil price and collapse of world economic activity. But when both these factors stabilised, the currency was able to rally...

FxWirePro: What Is Spotted-Out In August Seasonality of FX Vol?

Aug 12, 2020 13:14 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

August FX vol bounce is real, particularly in yen crosses but monthly vol rallies tend to be only of the order of 1vol. This relatively benign outcome leaves us comfortable with carrying short skews as a core theta-earning...

FxWirePro: Demand/Supply Equation & Hedging Strategy of Brent Crude

Aug 12, 2020 11:02 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

After six consecutive weeks of stalling global mobility, we trim our 2H20 demand assumptions by 1.5 mbd. The core demand scenario calls for a shallower recovery, rather than a renewed sharp downturn as governments,...

FxWirePro: Dollar Seems Apprehensive On Fed’s Concerns, Short USD/CHF

Aug 12, 2020 10:17 am UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks Insights & Views

Negotiations on a new economic stimulus package in the USA are still at an impasse. Since Friday there are said to have been no more direct talks between Democrats and Republicans. The markets and the Dollar are still...

FxWirePro: Kiwis tumbles as RBNZ maintains status-quo but intends for LSAP – Uphold ‘diagonal put spreads’ to hedge NZD/USD

Aug 12, 2020 07:11 am UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks Insights & Views

The Kiwis central bank (RBNZ) left the stance of monetary policy broadly unchanged today, as widely anticipated. The RBNZs headline was that a further easing in monetary policy has been delivered. But it is further only in...

FxWirePro: EUR/USD/JPY FVA Spread

Aug 11, 2020 15:13 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We have further raised our EUR-USD forecast, as we believe that the depreciation trend of the US dollar is not yet over. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Fed will stick to an ultra-expansionary monetary policy...