AU rates: a conditional easing bias
Jun 30, 2015 03:59 am UTC| Commentary
RBA policy risk is supporting a steep curve. RBA is expected to the keep policy unchanged over coming months while the Bank assesses the run of data to gauge the traction of current policy settings.There is an implied...
Jun 30, 2015 03:54 am UTC| Commentary
The pickup in US data alongside a September Fed hike will support USD-CAD.Additionally, WTI prices will dip in Q3 (before rebounding in Q4), according to our energy analysts, also weighing on CAD. With USD/CAD downside...
CAD rates to continue to outperform US
Jun 30, 2015 03:47 am UTC| Commentary
Recent economic data point to continuing divergence of monetary policies in US and Canada. Q1 GDP in Canada at -0.6% came much weaker than projected by the BOC, showing a greater negative impact from the oil shock than...
Jun 30, 2015 03:41 am UTC| Commentary
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kurodas recent comments about the yens real effective exchange rate and his later explanatory remarks prompted discussions in the FX market.Basic scenario is that USD/JPY will hover in...
JGB yields following a downward trend, but…
Jun 30, 2015 03:28 am UTC| Commentary
Rise in volatility due to low liquidity is becoming a risk for the JGB market. As long as central banks are buying government bonds in large quantities, yields will probably be vulnerable to downward pressure, and if the...
EUR/USD: still parity by year-end
Jun 30, 2015 03:22 am UTC| Commentary
Assuming US data will improve in H2, the Fed will start hiking rates in September, the ECB will push against the recent sell-off in rates, inflation will remain below the ECBs target path, and the market will start...
EZ Bunds to return to trading range
Jun 30, 2015 03:13 am UTC| Commentary
If Julys significant net issuance numbers does not translate into a reversal of the recent move higher in yields, the ECB would be forced into a downward revision of its inflation forecasts in September.The important...