Global Stocks Mixed as Oil Falls Ahead of US Earnings

Global stock markets traded unevenly on Monday as investors prepared for major corporate earnings and key US inflation data, while oil prices declined amid uncertainty surrounding a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.

US President Donald Trump's announcement of an immediate energy truce between Russia and Ukraine raised questions about future oil supplies. His proposal to increase Russian diesel exports also faced opposition from Republican and Democratic lawmakers, who questioned its legality.

Brent crude futures dropped 1.6% to $103.01 per barrel, retreating from a recent peak of $109.97. US crude futures fell 1.9% to $90.11, despite continued attacks on shipping and airports in the Gulf region.

Asian stock markets weakened, with South Korea's benchmark index falling 2.2% and Taiwan declining 0.5%. MSCI's Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan slipped 0.3%, while Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 0.1%.

Meanwhile, US stock futures advanced modestly. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, and European stock futures also posted gains.

Investors are closely watching the third-quarter earnings season, with major US banks scheduled to begin reporting Tuesday. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is expected to announce another record quarterly profit on Thursday, supported by strong artificial intelligence chip demand.

According to LSEG IBES, S&P 500 earnings could increase more than 30% in the third quarter, largely driven by technology companies.

However, concerns are growing over rising borrowing costs associated with massive AI infrastructure investments.

AMP economist My Bui warned that widening credit spreads suggest investors are questioning whether AI-related revenue growth can justify increasing financing expenses.

Attention is also turning to upcoming US consumer inflation, producer prices, and retail sales reports. Economists expect headline consumer prices to rise 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annually, while core inflation could ease to 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually.

Markets currently assign an 18% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase this month, climbing to 85% for December.

In currency trading, the euro hovered near $1.1201, while the US dollar index remained close to a 17-month high at 102.25. The dollar traded around 158.19 yen amid Japanese intervention concerns.

Gold prices climbed 0.4% to $4,212 per ounce as investors assessed inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and the outlook for global interest rates.