Oil Prices Fall as Trump Ceasefire Claim Shifts Market Focus to U.S. CPI

Oil prices declined on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, while investors awaited key U.S. inflation data and corporate earnings amid ongoing Middle East tensions.

Brent crude futures for December delivery dropped 1.8% to $102.84 per barrel, reversing some of last week's nearly 3% gain. Trump's announcement raised expectations that reduced attacks on Russian energy infrastructure could improve global fuel supplies.

However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv confirmed the ceasefire. Reports indicated that Ukraine continued targeting Russian refineries while Russia launched further strikes against Ukrainian power facilities.

Trump also proposed increasing Russian diesel exports to ease global fuel shortages, although damaged refining infrastructure could limit Moscow's ability to boost shipments.

Meanwhile, investors are preparing for Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.

Headline inflation is forecast to accelerate to 3.7%, while core inflation is expected to moderate to 2.5%. Market expectations for an October Fed rate hike have declined to approximately 18%, making the inflation figures particularly important for stocks, bonds and currencies.

Wall Street is also entering a major earnings period, with leading U.S. banks beginning to report quarterly results Tuesday.

Approximately 70% of S&P 500 companies are expected to release earnings during October, with analysts forecasting average earnings-per-share growth of around 30%.

Artificial intelligence investment remains a major growth driver, accounting for more than half of anticipated earnings expansion. Spending by hyperscale cloud providers is projected to increase 116% year over year.

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to complicate the market outlook as negotiations between Washington and Tehran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled.

Iran has reportedly suspended further responses through Qatari intermediaries while awaiting clarification of U.S. positions on its seven-condition proposal.

Tehran indicated that maritime traffic could resume within seven days if an agreement is reached, although restrictions on U.S. shipping could remain.

Renewed Middle East attacks, including a reported deadly strike at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, have heightened concerns about regional stability.

With the Strait of Hormuz historically handling approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, prolonged disruptions could sustain elevated energy prices and complicate efforts to contain inflation.