Emerging Market Crisis Series

Brazil’s retail sales likely declined again in January

Mar 09, 2016 12:20 pm UTC| Commentary

Brazils retail sales had declined in 2015 by 4.3% and the rate of slowdown continued to rise throughout 2015 with sales dropping 6.9% y/y in Q4, as compared with Q3s 5.7% y/y drop. Retail sales in December were mainly bad,...

Oil in Global Economy Series

API reports surplus, while WTI awaits EIA report – calls updated

Mar 09, 2016 12:12 pm UTC| Commentary

WTI is trying to crawl back some of the loss from yesterday. Further rise towards $40-41 area likely. WTI is currently trading at $37.1/barrel. Key factors at play in Crude market: OPEC and non-OPEC members will...

Bulgarian economy expands in Q4 2015 but growth faces downside risks in 2016

Mar 09, 2016 12:04 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Bulgarias economy grew 0.7% q/q and 3% y/y in Q4, according to the second estimate. It was revised down by 0.1ppt from the initial flash estimate of 0.8% q/q and 3.1% y/y. On the demand side, consumption recovered...

ECB likely to revise down 2016 inflation forecast significantly

Mar 09, 2016 11:32 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

ECB is largely expected to ease tomorrow. However, market expectations appear mixed, mainly due to the December experience and the uncertainty regarding with instruments to use. A cut of 10bp in the deposit rate looks very...

JGBs suffer massive volatility this week

Mar 09, 2016 11:10 am UTC| Commentary

Japanese government bond market is where lot is happening, especially since Bank of Japan (BoJ) introduced three tiered negative rates in tune of -0.1%. However, this week particular saw large increase in volatility,...

BCB minutes likely to highlight medium-term inflation expectation, unlikely to ease policy in 2016

Mar 09, 2016 10:52 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Central Bank of Brazil, as expected, kept the interest rate unchanged at 14.25%. The board had voted 6-2 to hold the rates. Two members asked for a rate hike of 50bp. The central banks language remained the same as...

Currency War Series

Bank of Korea likely to keep policy rate on hold tomorrow

Mar 09, 2016 10:36 am UTC| Commentary

The Bank of Korea is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% during its upcoming meeting. The meeting will mainly focus on the weakness in Januarys activity data. Also, there is a higher probability for another...