WTI is trying to crawl back some of the loss from yesterday. Further rise towards $40-41 area likely. WTI is currently trading at $37.1/barrel.

Key factors at play in Crude market:

• OPEC and non-OPEC members will be meeting next week. Russian oil minister, Alexander Novak said freeze production will succeed even without Iran as 75% of the producers are in the camp.
• With US lawmakers passing bill to lift 40 year old ban on US crude export US crude has reached European shore. Supply is expected to rise 4.1 million barrels/day over the next five years.
• Latest IEA report shows, supply glut likely to persist through 2017 and shocks may only come at the end of decade.
• American Petroleum Institute's (API) weekly report showed inventory rose by 4.4 million barrels. Most of it is largely due to
• Oil price is down, however lack of investments in the sector make prices vulnerable to supply shocks in future. IEA report confirmed this view.

Today's inventory report from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), to be released at 15:30 GMT.

Trade idea:

• We don't expect major recovery in oil price as global inventory is too large for that to work even with production freeze. Goldman Sachs are with similar view.
• While we are still committed to the downside, our short term call for Crude to reach $41/barrel is still on. Stop loss revised at $34. We recommend partial 30% profit booking at current level. Stop loss is now in the money.