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Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 copper price outlook downward, now projecting an average of $12,650 per tonne compared to its earlier estimate of $12,850. The adjustment reflects softer global demand expectations tied to weaker economic growth, though the investment bank continues to hold a bullish long-term view on the red metal, anchored by accelerating electrification trends worldwide.
The bank now forecasts a global copper market surplus of 490,000 tonnes for the year, widening from its previous projection of 380,000 tonnes. This shift comes after Goldman trimmed its global refined copper demand growth estimate to 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2%, partly in response to economists flagging a 0.4 percentage point drag on global GDP growth from energy price disruptions linked to Middle East tensions.
Notably, Goldman's demand cut for copper is more modest than the one applied to aluminium. Analysts explained that copper's growing structural importance in the global economy makes it less reactive to cyclical downturns. In the near term, the bank expects price volatility to persist but anticipates support if geopolitical conditions stabilize. Under its base scenario, copper is forecast to average $12,700 in the second quarter of 2026 before settling toward a fair value of $12,000 in the second half of the year.
Analysts also cautioned that current copper prices remain elevated relative to the bank's 2026 fair value estimate of around $11,100, making the commodity vulnerable to sharper declines if the economic environment weakens further and investors shift away from risk assets. Supply-side risks are also on the radar, particularly regarding the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which produces roughly 15% of global copper mine output and depends on sulfur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite near-term headwinds, Goldman's long-term copper thesis remains intact. The bank projects prices climbing to $15,000 per tonne by 2035, supported by robust demand from grid infrastructure and energy systems, which together account for 60% of projected global copper demand growth through 2030.
