Emerging Market Crisis Series

Emerging Market Crisis Series

South Korean export’s stable deterioration trend continues, BoK likely to keep monetary stance accommodative

Mar 01, 2016 07:21 am UTC| Commentary

South Koreas February 2015 exports dropped 12.2% y/y, as compared with the revised drop of 18.8% in January and decline of 14.3% in December. Februarys print is much better than consensus expectations of a drop of 16.6%....

Emerging Market Crisis Series

South Africa faces difficult times, but disaster is not inevitable

Feb 29, 2016 12:34 pm UTC| Insights & Views Economy

Finance minister Pravin Gordhans budget speech has generally been well received. Nevertheless, many people still fear that South Africa is on the verge of disaster. They cite recent events such as the firing of Nhlanhla...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

One-off revenues and base effects likely to improve Brazil’s 2016 fiscal results

Feb 29, 2016 06:38 am UTC| Commentary

Brazils primary balance for the general government in January reached a surplus of BRL27.9bn, with BRL8.0bn from regional governments, BRL20.9bn from the central government and a deficit of 1 billion from SOEs. This is an...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Brazil’s recession likely to be little more contained in 2016 on marginally better job elimination numbers

Feb 29, 2016 05:13 am UTC| Commentary

Brazil eliminated 99,964 jobs in January 2016, as compared with 81,774 in January 2015. The total number of jobs eliminated, in seasonally adjusted terms, was 129,235, as compared with 154k in December and an average of...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Deterioration of Brazil’s labor market likely to continue

Feb 26, 2016 07:16 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Brazil posted a lower than expected jobless rate of 7.6% in January. In seasonally adjusted terms, the jobless rate fell to 7.8%, as compared with Decembers 8.2%. This was the first decline in the past 12 months. However,...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Lower oil exports may continue to exert downward pressure on Mexico’s trade balance in near term

Feb 24, 2016 09:34 am UTC| Commentary

In 2015, Mexicos exports declined 4.1%, whereas imports dropped 1.2%, resulting in a trade deficit of USD14.5bn, as compared with 2014s deficit of USD2.8bn. Lower oil exports mostly led to the decline in trade balance....

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Brazilian central bank unlikely to hike rates despite high mid-February inflation print

Feb 24, 2016 07:32 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Brazils February IPCA-15 inflation accelerated 1.42% m/m and 10.8% y/y, surprising on the upside. The unexpected gains in apparel prices and broad-based price adjustments in beauty products mainly led to the surprising...