The Fed is likely to tighten monetary policy only by as much as markets allow without major turmoil. The FOMC statement showed that the Fed takes the financial market turmoil and the development in China and other emerging markets into account.
Fed expectations of 4 rate hikes this year are unlikely. The actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. For now markets are pricing in barely 1 hike this year. Will this cautious Fed stance benefit the Emerging Markets?
A more muted hiking cycle will definitely be welcomed by EM central banks. EM economies and assets typically outperform when developed markets illustrate above trend growth. So to expect EM currencies to illustrate a sustained appreciation trend simply because the Fed takes a more sanguine view may not be justified. Nonetheless a more muted pace of USD appreciation could mean at least one less macro risk to deal with.


Asia Stocks Pause as Tech Earnings, Fed Signals, and Dollar Weakness Drive Markets
Indonesia Stocks Face Fragile Sentiment After MSCI Warning and Market Rout
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady, Upgrades Growth and Inflation Outlook for Japan
Gold Prices Pull Back After Record Highs as January Rally Remains Strong
Starmer’s China Visit Signals New Era in UK–China Economic Relations
Oil Prices Surge Toward Biggest Monthly Gains in Years Amid Middle East Tensions
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated
Indonesian Stocks Plunge as MSCI Downgrade Risk Sparks Investor Exodus
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align
Philippine Central Bank Signals Steady Interest Rates as Inflation Rises and Growth Slows




