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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

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Economy

Why China’s economy has hit a wall

Chinas annual parliamentary meetings in Beijing came to a close on March 11. They were conducted under great pressure: a weak economy and high expectations from both the domestic public and international observers as to...

Vladimir Putin’s gold strategy explains why sanctions against Russia have failed

There are more than 16,000 sanctions imposed against Russia. Yet the Russian economy and war machine grew by 3.6 per cent in 2023 and is projected to grow another 2.6 in 2024. Nearly six per cent of Russias gross...

Mentorship is key to improving social and economic outcomes for Black youth

Black youth in Canada experience poorer educational achievement than other children and youth, which leads to subsequent poor economic outcomes. A series of problems and barriers contribute to poor educational outcomes....

There’s an extra $1 billion on the table for NT schools. This could change lives if spent well

The federal and Northern Territory governments have just made a historic funding announcement of about A$1 billion for schools in the territory. This includes an extra $737.7 million from the federal government and an...

Undersea cables for Africa’s internet retrace history and leave digital gaps as they connect continents

Large parts of west and central Africa, as well as some countries in the south of the continent, were left without internet services on 14 March because of failures on four of the fibre optic cables that run below the...

Politics

SpaceX Builds Spy Satellites for US; Russia Warns of Military Response

Russia has issued a stark warning to the United States, stating that the use of SpaceXs satellites for espionage could render them targets for military action. This follows revelations that SpaceX is constructing a spy...

Deepfakes are still new, but 2024 could be the year they have an impact on elections

Disinformation caught many people off guard during the 2016 Brexit referendum and US presidential election. Since then, a mini-industry has developed to analyse and counter it. Yet despite that, we have entered 2024 a...

Political donations rules are finally in the spotlight – here’s what the government should do

Australias political donations rules are woefully inadequate, but donations reform is finally on the agenda. The federal government has signalled its interest in reform and will soon begin briefing MPs on its plan. Greater...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Science

How do airplanes fly? An aerospace engineer explains the physics of flight

Airplane flight is one of the most significant technological achievements of the 20th century. The invention of the airplane allows people to travel from one side of the planet to the other in less than a day, compared...

The mystery of consciousness shows there may be a limit to what science alone can achieve

The progress of science in the last 400 years is mind-blowing. Who would have thought wed be able to trace the history of our universe to its origins 14 billion years ago? Science has increased the length and the quality...

What is minoxidil, the anti-balding hair growth treatment? Here’s what the science says

Hair loss (also known as alopecia) often affects the scalp but can occur anywhere on the body. Its very common and usually nothing to worry about; about half of Australian men show signs of visible baldness at age 50 and...

Our survey of the sky is uncovering the secrets of how planets are born

When we look out to the stars, it is typically not a yearning for the distant depths of outer space that drives us. When we are looking out there, we are truly looking back at ourselves. We try to understand our place in...

Archeoastronomy uses the rare times and places of previous total solar eclipses to help us measure history

Total solar eclipses have fascinated and terrified people for centuries. Today, we know that total solar eclipses like the upcoming eclipse on April 8 are caused by a cosmic coincidence when the moon comes between the...

Technology

Dogecoin Surges 20% Amid Coinbase Listing Buzz and Whale Moves

Dogecoins price leaped 20%, bucking the market downtrend. Spurred by its upcoming Coinbase listing and a spike in whale transactions, it attracted investor interest. Dogecoin Rallies 20% as Coinbase Futures Listing...

Shiba Inu's Burn Rate Soars by 1,200%, BTC Eyes $80K Pre-Halving Rally

The Shiba Inu community witnesses a staggering 1,200% spike in its burn rate, fueling optimism for a bullish rally, while experts predict Bitcoin (BTC) will approach $80,000 ahead of its next halving. Shiba Inus Burn...

Take-Two Interactive Buys Gearbox Entertainment Company From Embracer

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. announced it is acquiring Gearbox Entertainment, which the Embracer Group is slashing from its portfolio. The New York-based video game holding firm said the deal is valued at $460...

Xiaomi Revs Up: SU7 Unveiled, Set to Outpace Tesla, BYD with Sub-500K Yuan Price Tag

As Xiaomi ventures into electric vehicles, it positions itself in Chinas competitive EV sector, focusing on pricing and market disruption. The debut of its first electric vehicle, the SU7, marks a significant move after...
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