I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.
Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts
Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law
A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...
Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states
Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics
Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...
Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps
Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics
A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...
With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls
Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics
Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...
Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election
Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics
A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...
Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority
Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics
This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...
NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains
Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics
After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...
Tiny laboratories that fit in your hand can rapidly identify pathogens using electricity