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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices

Chinas central bank has continued to strengthen its gold reserves, extending its buying streak to a 15th consecutive month in January, according to the latest data released by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC). The move...

Trump Lifts 25% Tariff on Indian Goods in Strategic U.S.–India Trade and Energy Deal

President Donald Trump has signed a landmark executive order removing the 25% penalty tariff on Indian goods, signaling a major shift in U.S.India trade relations and global geopolitical alignment. The move functions as...

Trump Signs Executive Order Threatening 25% Tariffs on Countries Trading With Iran

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order that could impose tariffs of up to 25% on countries that continue to do business with Iran, marking a significant escalation in Washingtons pressure campaign...

U.S.-India Trade Framework Signals Major Shift in Tariffs, Energy, and Supply Chains

The United States and India have taken a significant step toward a long-anticipated bilateral trade agreement by releasing an interim trade framework aimed at lowering tariffs, reshaping energy ties, and strengthening...

Dow Hits 50,000 as U.S. Stocks Stage Strong Rebound Amid AI Volatility

U.S. stocks surged on Friday, posting their strongest session since May 2025, as investors regained confidence following a turbulent week marked by sharp losses in technology shares and uncertainty around the artificial...

Politics

Ohio Man Indicted for Alleged Threat Against Vice President JD Vance, Faces Additional Federal Charges

A federal grand jury has returned an indictment against a 33-year-old Ohio man accused of threatening to kill U.S. Vice President JD Vance during the vice presidents visit to the Ohio region in January, according to the...

New York Legalizes Medical Aid in Dying for Terminally Ill Patients

New York has officially joined a growing number of U.S. states allowing medical aid in dying after Governor Kathy Hochul signed landmark legislation into law on Friday. The new New York medical aid in dying law permits...

Trump Says “Very Good Talks” Underway on Russia-Ukraine War as Peace Efforts Continue

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that very good talks are ongoing regarding Russias war in Ukraine, signaling potential movement in long-running diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Speaking briefly to...

China Warns US Arms Sales to Taiwan Could Disrupt Trump’s Planned Visit

China has issued a strong warning to the United States, signaling that any additional arms sales to Taiwan could seriously jeopardize U.S. President Donald Trumps planned visit to China in April. According to a report...

Trump Allows Commercial Fishing in Protected New England Waters

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed a proclamation permitting commercial fishing in a previously restricted marine protected area off the coast of New England, a move that has sparked renewed debate over ocean...

Science

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

Technology

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Says AI Investment Boom Is Just Beginning as NVDA Shares Surge

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang reaffirmed his bullish stance on artificial intelligence, calling the massive capital expenditure flowing into AI infrastructure both appropriate and necessary as the industry...

Amazon Stock Rebounds After Earnings as $200B Capex Plan Sparks AI Spending Debate

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) delivered a mixed but closely watched earnings report, beating Wall Street expectations on revenue while unveiling a massive long-term investment plan that unsettled investors. The e-commerce and...

Global PC Makers Eye Chinese Memory Chip Suppliers Amid Ongoing Supply Crunch

Major PC manufacturers including HP, Dell, Acer, and Asus are reportedly exploring the option of sourcing memory chips from Chinese semiconductor companies for the first time, as a prolonged global supply crunch continues...

OpenAI Expands Enterprise AI Strategy With Major Hiring Push Ahead of New Business Offering

OpenAI is significantly accelerating its enterprise AI strategy by hiring hundreds of new employees for its technical consulting division, according to a report by The Information, citing a person familiar with the...

SoftBank Shares Slide After Arm Earnings Miss Fuels Tech Stock Sell-Off

SoftBank Group Corp. (TYO:9984) shares tumbled sharply on Thursday, tracking a steep decline in Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) after the UK-based chip designer reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the December quarter....