I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.
Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election
Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics
A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...
Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority
Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics
This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...
NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains
Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics
After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...
The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close
May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics
The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...
Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election
Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics
The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...
Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential
Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics
This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...
Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around
Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics
Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...