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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

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Economy

Budget 2024: experts react to the UK government’s last roll of the economic dice ahead of a general election

The spring budget of 2024 was widely seen as a chance for UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to inject some economic optimism into British politics ahead of a general election. Would he or wouldnt he cut income tax? (He wouldnt.)...

From micro to macro, Andrew Leigh’s accessible history covers the economic essentials – and an epic rap battle

Andrew Leighs The Shortest History of Economics is the latest in a series of such histories, mostly focused on particular countries. It begins with a striking mini-history of household lighting, focusing on the amount...

Taxes aren’t just about money – they shape how we think about each other

Taxes raising them, cutting them, creating them are useful political tools in an election year (as Chancellor Jeremy Hunts decision to cut national insurance shows). But they are always pertinent, even if some people...

Interest rates are expected to drop but trying to out-think the market won’t guarantee getting a good deal

With most economists expecting interest rates to start falling later this year, prospective home buyers might be weighing up whether to buy now for fear of strong competition for stock, or waiting until repayments are...

Wendy’s won’t be introducing surge pricing, but it’s nothing new to many industries

The recent controversy over Wendys pricing strategies is a perfect example of how online word-of-mouth can distort marketing communications and create confusion for consumers. Wendys new president and CEO Kirk Tanner...

Politics

3 things to watch for in Russia’s presidential election – other than Putin’s win, that is

Russians will vote in a presidential election from March 15-17, 2024, and are all but guaranteed to hand Vladimir Putin a comfortable victory, paving the way for him to remain in power until at least 2030. While the...

Ireland referendums: what went wrong for the government and why double defeat draws a line under a decade of constitutional reform

Ireland, more than any other EU country, has a long and colourful history of referendums. Another chapter in that history has played out in the form of resounding defeats for two government proposals aimed at modernising...

Artdocfest is a crucial outpost of free expression on Russia’s doorstep

On the day of the funeral of Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Putins most prominent opponent, the biggest festival of documentary film in the former Soviet countries opened in Latvia with a minutes silence. Artdocfest Rigas...

A beginner’s guide to the taxes you’ll hear about this election season

National insurance, income tax, VAT, capital gains tax, inheritance tax… its easy to get confused about the many different ways we contribute to the cost of running the country. The budget announcement is the key...

Science

Our survey of the sky is uncovering the secrets of how planets are born

When we look out to the stars, it is typically not a yearning for the distant depths of outer space that drives us. When we are looking out there, we are truly looking back at ourselves. We try to understand our place in...

Archeoastronomy uses the rare times and places of previous total solar eclipses to help us measure history

Total solar eclipses have fascinated and terrified people for centuries. Today, we know that total solar eclipses like the upcoming eclipse on April 8 are caused by a cosmic coincidence when the moon comes between the...

Spacesuits need a major upgrade for the next phase of exploration

Humans have long dreamed of setting foot on the Moon and other planetary bodies such as Mars. Since the 1960s, space travellers have donned suits designed to protect them from the vacuum of space and stepped out into the...

The brightest object in the universe is a black hole that eats a star a day

Scientists have no reported evidence of the true conditions in Hell, perhaps because no one has ever returned to tell the tale. Hell has been imagined as a supremely uncomfortable place, hot and hostile to bodily forms of...

The brain is the most complicated object in the universe. This is the story of scientists’ quest to decode it – and read people’s minds

In the middle of 2023, a study conducted by the HuthLab at the University of Texas sent shockwaves through the realms of neuroscience and technology. For the first time, the thoughts and impressions of people unable to...

Technology

Grab's Game-Changer: Crypto Payments Launch in Asia's Premier Super App

In a landmark move, Grab, the leading super app in Asia, has announced its partnership with Triple-A to introduce cryptocurrency payments, marking a significant milestone in digital finance within the region. Grab...

Rivian Joins Tesla's Supercharger Network, Boosting Electric Vehicle Accessibility

Rivian, the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has integrated its vehicles into Teslas Supercharger network, adding to the accessibility of charging stations for EV owners. This move follows Fords recent inclusion in...

Binance Targets Insider Trading, Offers $5M Reward for Whistleblowers in BOME Case

In response to allegations of insider trading involving the BOME token listing, Binance has set a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to the identification of perpetrators, reinforcing its commitment to...

Standard Chartered Foresees Bitcoin at $250,000, Ethereum to Hit $8,000 by 2025

Standard Chartered has updated its Bitcoin and Ethereum forecasts, predicting BTC will hit $150,000 by year-end and soar to $250,000 by 2025, with Ethereum potentially reaching $8,000 on U.S. ETF approval. Standard...
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