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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections.

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

Poll wrap: Morrison's ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth's huge difference in on-the-day and early voting

Oct 29, 2018 19:31 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens...

Poll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria

Oct 16, 2018 15:12 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11%...

Poll wrap: Worst reaction to midterm PM change in Newspoll history; contrary polls in Dutton's Dickson

Aug 28, 2018 12:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 24-26 - the days following the leadership spill - from a sample of 1,780, gave Labor a massive 56-44 lead, a five point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41%...

How the hard right terminated Turnbull, only to see Scott Morrison become PM

Aug 25, 2018 07:52 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After a week of vicious internal party politics, Malcolm Turnbull has been deposed as prime minister and replaced not by Peter Dutton, but Scott Morrison. In todays party room vote, Morrison, who was supported by Turnbull,...

Polls update: Trump’s ratings held up by US economy; Australian polls steady

Aug 13, 2018 15:05 pm UTC| Insights & Views Economy

Three months before the November 6 US midterm elections, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate gives Donald Trump a 41.7% approval rating and a 52.5% disapproval rating, for a net approval of -10.8. Despite issues such as...

Poll wrap: Turnbull’s Newspoll ratings slump; Labor leads in Victoria; Longman preferences helped LNP

Aug 13, 2018 12:46 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 9-12 from a sample of 1,607, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 35% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (steady) and 9% One...

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Economy

U.S. Treasuries narrowly mixed ahead of October consumer price inflation data, Fed Chair Powell’s speech

The U.S. Treasuries remained narrowly mixed Wednesday ahead of todays October consumer price inflation (CPI), scheduled to be released by 13:30GMT. Also, Fed Chair Jerome Powells speech, due for today at 23:00GMT will add...

UK gilts surge on better-than-expected October consumer price inflation; retail sales data in focus

The UK gilts surged during Wednesdays afternoon session after the countrys consumer price inflation for the month of October impressed market participants, albeit remaining unchanged from that in September. Also,...

German bunds gain after Q3 GDP falls, albeit better than expectations; 10-year auction in focus

The German bunds gained during European session Wednesday following a fall in the countrys gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of this year, released today, albeit better than market...

German bunds gain after Q3 GDP falls, albeit better than expectations; 10-year auction in focus

The German bunds gained during European session Wednesday following a fall in the countrys gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of this year, released today, albeit better than market...

Australia’s Q3 wage price index rises to highest in three years; AUD/USD trades range-bound

Australias wage price index for the third quarter of this year rose to its highest in three years, while the AUD/USD currency traded range-bound at the time of writing during Asian session Tuesday. Further inroads into...

Politics

Threats remain to US voting system – and voters' perceptions of reality

As the 2018 midterms proceed, there are still significant risks to the integrity of the voting system and information warfare continues to try to influence the American publics choices when they cast their ballots. On...

View from The Hill: Katter waves Section 44 stick in a 'notice North Queensland' moment

On the day independent Kerryn Phelps was officially declared the winner in Wentworth, a shot was fired across Scott Morrisons bows to remind him of the challenge of managing a now-hung parliament. It came not from...

Religion and refugees are deeply entwined in the US

Robert Bowers lashed out at what he believed to be a Jewish plot to bring more refugees and asylum seekers to the U.S. before allegedly murdering 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh. Bowerss claim that...

International election observers evaluating US midterm elections will face limitations

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, is sending international election observers to the 2018 U.S. midterm election. American voters may be surprised to learn such visits are routine. In...

Ideologically motivated far-right extremists have killed close to 500 people since 1990 – and 10 percent were targeted based on religion

The mass shooting at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh exemplifies an increasingly deadly form of domestic terrorism committed by far-right extremists: the targeting of institutions and individuals due to their...

Science

Dramatic galaxy collision filled the Milky Way with stars, astronomers discover

Imagine trying to map out your home town using only information you could gather from your window. Even with a pair of binoculars youd find it a difficult task. Mapping out our own galaxy, the Milky Way, is a similarly...

How thoughtful, content-rich tutorials can help science students learn

Learning is not a spectator sport. Students need to make what they learn a part of their everyday lives. Tutorials are an excellent way to achieve this at university level. When theyre properly designed, tutorials can be...

Curious Kids: If a star explodes, will it destroy Earth?

This is an article from Curious Kids, a series for children. The Conversation is asking kids to send in questions theyd like an expert to answer. All questions are welcome: find out how to enter at the bottom. You might...

Explainer: what any country can and can't do in Antarctica, in the name of science

Antarctica is owned by no one, but there are plenty of countries interested in this frozen island continent at the bottom of the Earth. While there are some regulations on who can do what there, scientific research has...

We've spotted signs of collisions that may finally help us prove that supermassive black holes exist

Observations of nature tend to throw up unexpected results and new mysteries whether youre investigating the rain forest or outer space. When radio astronomy took off in the 1950s, we had no idea that it would lead to the...

Technology

Bitcoin Latest News & Update: SEC Close to Approving VanEck Bitcoin ETF?

Bitcoin is still trading at a fairly calm state as the cryptocurrencys value wobbles between $6,000 and $6,800. Although this is quite unusual for Bitcoin, it isnt the first for the cryptocurrency to behave in such a way...

AMD Latest News & Update: To Demolish Intel with New EPYC 7371 Processor? Targets Data Centers

AMD has been on a roll recently and the announcement for its new EPYC 7371 Threadripper processor threatens to absolutely bury whatever Intel has to offer. This new monster of a chip comes with 64 cores from the Zen 2 line...

Jailbreak for iOS 12.1 Latest News & Update: Downgrade Advised, Apple Plays Cat & Mouse with Hackers

Jailbreak for iOS 12.1 is proving to be challenging and Apple is simply not letting up. There are those within the mobile software community who are working hard to create a jailbreak kit for the latest iOS version....

‘GTA 6’ Release Date, News & Update: Should Upcoming Game Receive a New Map?

GTA 6 is making a lot of noise on the web again as its predecessor recently accomplished another milestone for the gaming studio. GTA 5 has now reportedly shipped over 100 million copies worldwide, increasing the...

‘Darksiders 3’ Release Date, News & Update: Is the New DLC Coming Out in 2018?

Darksiders 3 is one of the most awaited titles coming out this year and the long wait is finally coming to an end. Gunfire Games announced that theyre going to be releasing the third part of the title on Nov. 27 and has...
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November 14 11:00 UTC Released

ZARetail Sales YY

Actual

0.7 %

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2.2 %

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2.5 %

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BRService Sector Growth MM

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-0.3 %

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0.3 %

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1.2 %

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January 22 19:00 UTC 425796425796m

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-1541 %

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January 22 19:00 UTC 425796425796m

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-1541 %

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 413976413976m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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