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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Poll wrap: Morrison's ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth's huge difference in on-the-day and early voting

Oct 29, 2018 19:31 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens...

Poll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria

Oct 16, 2018 15:12 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11%...

Poll wrap: Worst reaction to midterm PM change in Newspoll history; contrary polls in Dutton's Dickson

Aug 28, 2018 12:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 24-26 - the days following the leadership spill - from a sample of 1,780, gave Labor a massive 56-44 lead, a five point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41%...

How the hard right terminated Turnbull, only to see Scott Morrison become PM

Aug 25, 2018 07:52 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After a week of vicious internal party politics, Malcolm Turnbull has been deposed as prime minister and replaced not by Peter Dutton, but Scott Morrison. In todays party room vote, Morrison, who was supported by Turnbull,...

Polls update: Trump’s ratings held up by US economy; Australian polls steady

Aug 13, 2018 15:05 pm UTC| Insights & Views Economy

Three months before the November 6 US midterm elections, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate gives Donald Trump a 41.7% approval rating and a 52.5% disapproval rating, for a net approval of -10.8. Despite issues such as...

Poll wrap: Turnbull’s Newspoll ratings slump; Labor leads in Victoria; Longman preferences helped LNP

Aug 13, 2018 12:46 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 9-12 from a sample of 1,607, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 35% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (steady) and 9% One...

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Economy

China’s ‘Lipstick King’ Says AI Won’t Replace Livestream Hosts

Chinas livestream shopping industry is entering a slower phase, but Li Jiaqi, the influential presenter known as the Lipstick King, believes artificial intelligence will complement rather than replace human hosts. Li, who...

Oil Prices Ease as Iran Tensions Clash With Diplomacy Hopes

Oil prices fell during Asian trading on Thursday, giving back some of the previous sessions gains as investors assessed escalating U.S.-Iran tensions alongside signs that diplomatic efforts could still ease the conflict....

Japan Private-Sector Growth Slows as Domestic Demand Weakens

Japans private-sector growth lost momentum in September as weaker domestic demand slowed new orders across manufacturing and services, according to preliminary SP Global purchasing managers index data released Thursday....

South Korea, US Discuss Warship Building Cooperation

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung discussed expanding cooperation with the United States on warship construction during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday, according to South Koreas presidential...

Russian Envoy Dmitriev Heads to US for Ukraine Talks

Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev is traveling to the United States for talks with Trump administration representatives, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as Washington and Moscow continue diplomatic...

Politics

Ghana Says Western Support Growing for Slave Trade Reparations

Ghana says Western support is increasing for its campaign seeking reparations for the trans-Atlantic slave trade, with the initial effort focused on securing the return of African artifacts taken during the colonial era....

Sudan Rejects US Legitimacy Remarks, Defends Sovereignty

Sudan on Wednesday defended its national sovereignty and urged the United States to engage constructively with its government after Washington questioned the legitimacy of the countrys warring authorities. The dispute...

US Invites Putin to Miami G20, Opening Door to Trump Summit

The United States has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami, Florida, in December, potentially creating an opportunity for another meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. U.S....

US Officials Split Over Response to Israeli West Bank Settlements

A proposed U.S. statement criticizing the UK, France and Canada over restrictions on imports from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank was ultimately shelved amid disagreements within the Trump administration,...

Europe Warns Russia Is Escalating Hybrid Attacks Across NATO

European officials have warned that Russia is intensifying hybrid attacks across Europe, including cyberattacks, sabotage and airspace violations, in an effort to weaken Western support for Ukraine. Speaking during the UN...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Meta Unveils Muse Charm AI Device, Expands Smart Glasses Lineup

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) unveiled a palm-sized device designed specifically for its Muse artificial intelligence agent on Wednesday, alongside an expanded lineup of smart glasses and new AI capabilities. CEO Mark...

SoftBank Raises $11.1 Billion in Bond Sale to Fund OpenAI Investment

SoftBank Group has raised $11.1 billion through a major dollar- and euro-denominated bond offering as the Japanese technology investment giant builds up cash to finance its expanding artificial intelligence investments,...

Meta Connect Spotlights Camera-Free Smart Glasses Amid Privacy Concerns

Meta Platforms opened its annual Connect conference on Wednesday, with the technology giant expected to introduce new smart glasses as it seeks to expand its lead in AI-powered wearable devices while addressing mounting...

Anthropic’s Claude Discovers CRISPR-Like Enzyme System

Anthropic has launched a new life sciences research group and laboratory focused on fundamental biology, with its Claude AI model already contributing to the discovery of a previously unknown enzyme system that shares...

Microsoft Stock Upgraded as Stifel Sees Stronger Azure Growth

Stifel upgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Buy from Hold and lifted its price target to $575 from $530, citing stronger confidence in the technology giants ability to maintain mid-to-upper-teens revenue growth. Analysts...