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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

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Economy

Saudi Aramco Q1 Profit Jumps 25% as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Oil Exports

Saudi Aramco posted a strong 25% increase in first-quarter net profit for 2026, highlighting the companys resilience amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and major disruptions to global energy shipping routes. The Saudi...

Dollar Struggles to Rally Despite Strong US Data as Fed Hike Expectations Remain Limited

The U.S. dollar has continued to underperform even as economic data points to improving fundamentals, and BofA Securities believes the markets hesitation is tied to expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve rate...

Malaysia Unveils Energy Security Plan Amid Iran Conflict and Rising Oil Costs

Malaysia is preparing to introduce a comprehensive strategy to protect its oil supply as tensions surrounding the Iran conflict continue to disrupt global energy markets. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is expected to...

Russian LNG Shadow Fleet Expands Amid Arctic LNG 2 Sanctions

Russia is intensifying efforts to bypass Western energy sanctions after a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker operating under a newly adopted Russian flag was spotted loading fuel linked to the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2...

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Record Highs as AI Stocks Rally and Strong Jobs Data Boost Confidence

The SP 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs on Friday as investors poured into AI-related stocks and welcomed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the American economy....

Politics

Qatar Condemns Drone Strike as Iran Conflict Threatens Gulf Shipping and Global Markets

Qatar has strongly condemned a drone strike on a cargo vessel in its territorial waters, calling the incident a serious violation of international law and a dangerous escalation in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. The...

Iran Military Readiness Intensifies After Meeting With Mojtaba Khamenei

Irans military leadership has reinforced its warning against the United States and Israel following a high-level meeting between senior armed forces officials and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, according to a report...

Qatar LNG Tanker Crosses Strait of Hormuz Amid Iran War Tensions

A QatarEnergy-operated liquefied natural gas tanker successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday for the first time since the Iran war began on February 28, signaling a possible easing of tensions in one of the...

Germany Rejects Putin’s Proposal for Schroeder to Mediate Ukraine Peace Talks

Germany has dismissed Russian President Vladimir Putins suggestion that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder could act as a mediator between Russia and the European Union in possible Ukraine peace negotiations....

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Ceasefire Violations Amid Drone and Artillery Attacks

Russias Defence Ministry claimed on Sunday that Ukraine breached a temporary ceasefire by carrying out drone and artillery attacks against Russian forces, according to reports from Interfax news agency. Moscow stated that...

Science

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

Technology

AI-Driven Inflation Raises U.S. Consumer Prices, Goldman Sachs Says

Artificial intelligence is starting to increase U.S. consumer prices through rising costs in electronics, software, and electricity, according to a new Goldman Sachs report. The investment bank said AI-related inflation...

Judge Delays SEC Settlement With Elon Musk Over Twitter Stock Disclosure Case

A federal judge has declined to immediately approve a proposed $1.5 million settlement between Elon Musk and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) tied to Musks 2022 Twitter stock purchase disclosures. The...

Broadcom Eyes $35 Billion AI Chip Financing Deal With Apollo and Blackstone

Broadcom Inc. is reportedly in discussions with Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Inc. to secure around $35 billion in financing for its expanding artificial intelligence chip business, according to a Bloomberg...

Dell Stock Hits Record High After Trump Endorsement, AI Server Demand Fuels Rally

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL) surged to an all-time high on Friday after receiving a public endorsement from President Donald Trump during a White House event. The president encouraged Americans to go out and buy...

TikTok Nears $400 Million Settlement With Trump Administration Over Child Privacy Lawsuit

TikTok and the Trump administration are reportedly close to reaching a $400 million settlement tied to allegations that the popular video-sharing platform violated U.S. child privacy laws. According to ABC News, the...