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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

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Economy

Oil Prices Drop as Middle East Supply Recovery Eases Market Concerns

Global oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, reaching levels close to those seen before tensions escalated between Iran and its regional rivals. The sharp drop in crude prices reflects growing confidence that oil...

White House Seeks $87.6 Billion Emergency Funding for Iran War, Farmers, and Ebola Response

The White House has formally asked Congress to approve an $87.6 billion supplemental spending package aimed at covering expenses tied to the ongoing Iran war, while also providing funding for American farmers and...

Japan Signals Preference for Low Interest Rates as BOJ Policy Debate Intensifies

Japans government is preparing to push for a monetary policy that supports stronger private demand, highlighting its preference for keeping borrowing costs low even as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues normalizing interest...

Gold Drops Below $4,000 as Strong US Dollar and Fed Rate Hike Expectations Pressure Bullion

Gold prices continued their downward trend during Asian trading on Thursday, falling to their lowest level in more than seven months as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest...

South Korea’s KOSPI Jumps Over 5% as Samsung, SK Hynix Rally on Micron Earnings Boost

South Koreas benchmark KOSPI index soared more than 5% at Thursdays market open, prompting the Korea Exchange (KRX) to temporarily halt program trading after a sharp rally fueled by leading semiconductor stocks. The...

Politics

US Mobilizes Aid After Powerful Earthquakes Devastate Venezuela

Powerful earthquakes that struck Venezuela on Wednesday have prompted an immediate response from the United States, which is coordinating with Venezuelan authorities and preparing emergency assistance for the disaster-hit...

US Urges States and Businesses to Strengthen Taiwan Ties Amid China Pressure

The United States has urged state governments and private businesses to strengthen their engagement with Taiwan after raising concerns that Chinese officials have been attempting to discourage such relationships. According...

Young Brazilian Voters Shift Right Ahead of 2026 Election

As Brazil prepares for its October presidential election, a growing number of young voters are moving away from the left, signaling a major political shift that could influence the countrys future. Many who once supported...

Pelosi Discloses Major Intel and Uber Call Option Purchases Worth Up to $6 Million

Representative Nancy Pelosi has disclosed a new financial transaction report revealing that her spouse, Paul Pelosi, purchased substantial call options in Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:...

Trump Requests $11 Billion More in Farm Aid as Rising Costs Pressure U.S. Farmers

U.S. President Donald Trump has asked Congress to approve more than $11 billion in additional farm aid to help American farmers cope with soaring fuel and fertilizer expenses linked to the recent Iran conflict. According...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Kioxia Targets U.S. Listing as AI Chip Boom Accelerates

Japan-based Kioxia Holdings Corp. (TYO:285A) is preparing to launch U.S. depositary shares in the spring of 2027, a strategic move aimed at expanding its global investor base and taking advantage of growing enthusiasm for...

Doncasters Raises $919 Million in NYSE IPO as Aerospace Growth Accelerates

Doncasters has successfully raised $919.3 million through its U.S. initial public offering (IPO), marking a significant milestone in the aerospace components manufacturers long-term transformation. The historic British...

SK Hynix Targets $29.4 Billion Nasdaq Listing to Expand AI Chip Business

SK Hynix has announced plans to raise as much as $29.4 billion through a Nasdaq listing in the United States, positioning the deal as one of the largest global stock offerings in history. The South Korean memory chip...

Alibaba Shares Fall After Anthropic Alleges Massive AI Model Distillation Campaign

Alibaba Groups Hong Kong-listed shares dropped sharply on Thursday after reports revealed that U.S.-based artificial intelligence company Anthropic accused the Chinese tech giant of conducting a large-scale campaign to...

Samsung and SK Hynix Shares Jump After Micron Earnings Boost AI Chip Optimism

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posted strong gains on Thursday after Micron Technology delivered record quarterly earnings and issued a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast, reinforcing confidence in the growing...