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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

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Economy

China’s ‘Lipstick King’ Says AI Won’t Replace Livestream Hosts

Chinas livestream shopping industry is entering a slower phase, but Li Jiaqi, the influential presenter known as the Lipstick King, believes artificial intelligence will complement rather than replace human hosts. Li, who...

Oil Prices Ease as Iran Tensions Clash With Diplomacy Hopes

Oil prices fell during Asian trading on Thursday, giving back some of the previous sessions gains as investors assessed escalating U.S.-Iran tensions alongside signs that diplomatic efforts could still ease the conflict....

Japan Private-Sector Growth Slows as Domestic Demand Weakens

Japans private-sector growth lost momentum in September as weaker domestic demand slowed new orders across manufacturing and services, according to preliminary SP Global purchasing managers index data released Thursday....

South Korea, US Discuss Warship Building Cooperation

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung discussed expanding cooperation with the United States on warship construction during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday, according to South Koreas presidential...

Russian Envoy Dmitriev Heads to US for Ukraine Talks

Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev is traveling to the United States for talks with Trump administration representatives, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as Washington and Moscow continue diplomatic...

Politics

Ghana Says Western Support Growing for Slave Trade Reparations

Ghana says Western support is increasing for its campaign seeking reparations for the trans-Atlantic slave trade, with the initial effort focused on securing the return of African artifacts taken during the colonial era....

Sudan Rejects US Legitimacy Remarks, Defends Sovereignty

Sudan on Wednesday defended its national sovereignty and urged the United States to engage constructively with its government after Washington questioned the legitimacy of the countrys warring authorities. The dispute...

US Invites Putin to Miami G20, Opening Door to Trump Summit

The United States has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami, Florida, in December, potentially creating an opportunity for another meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. U.S....

US Officials Split Over Response to Israeli West Bank Settlements

A proposed U.S. statement criticizing the UK, France and Canada over restrictions on imports from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank was ultimately shelved amid disagreements within the Trump administration,...

Europe Warns Russia Is Escalating Hybrid Attacks Across NATO

European officials have warned that Russia is intensifying hybrid attacks across Europe, including cyberattacks, sabotage and airspace violations, in an effort to weaken Western support for Ukraine. Speaking during the UN...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Meta Unveils Muse Charm AI Device, Expands Smart Glasses Lineup

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) unveiled a palm-sized device designed specifically for its Muse artificial intelligence agent on Wednesday, alongside an expanded lineup of smart glasses and new AI capabilities. CEO Mark...

SoftBank Raises $11.1 Billion in Bond Sale to Fund OpenAI Investment

SoftBank Group has raised $11.1 billion through a major dollar- and euro-denominated bond offering as the Japanese technology investment giant builds up cash to finance its expanding artificial intelligence investments,...

Meta Connect Spotlights Camera-Free Smart Glasses Amid Privacy Concerns

Meta Platforms opened its annual Connect conference on Wednesday, with the technology giant expected to introduce new smart glasses as it seeks to expand its lead in AI-powered wearable devices while addressing mounting...

Anthropic’s Claude Discovers CRISPR-Like Enzyme System

Anthropic has launched a new life sciences research group and laboratory focused on fundamental biology, with its Claude AI model already contributing to the discovery of a previously unknown enzyme system that shares...

Microsoft Stock Upgraded as Stifel Sees Stronger Azure Growth

Stifel upgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Buy from Hold and lifted its price target to $575 from $530, citing stronger confidence in the technology giants ability to maintain mid-to-upper-teens revenue growth. Analysts...