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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

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Economy

Time to buy local: war fuel price shocks reveal the folly of a long food supply chain

Most of our food travels many thousands of kilometres across Australia to reach our kitchens. We are highly dependent on a vast web of long-haul trucks to move food between growers, massive food distribution hubs and large...

Gold is meant to be a ‘safe haven’ in uncertain times. Why is it crashing amid a war?

Gold has long enjoyed a reputation as a financial safe haven during stormy times. But over the past few months of geopolitical chaos and market panic, the precious metal has moved more like a roller coaster than a steady...

WTO Reform Talks Begin in Cameroon Amid Global Trade Tensions

Trade ministers from around the world convened Thursday in Yaoundé, Cameroon, for a critical four-day summit focused on reforming the World Trade Organization. The high-stakes gathering comes at a turbulent moment...

Japan Eyes Oil Futures Intervention to Stabilize Yen Amid Middle East Crisis

Japan is exploring an unconventional strategy to halt the yens ongoing decline directly intervening in global crude oil futures markets. The proposal, first reported by Reuters, signals Tokyos growing frustration as...

U.S. Stock Futures Steady as Iran Reviews U.S. Ceasefire Proposal

U.S. stock index futures held relatively steady on Wednesday evening after Iran signaled it was reviewing a ceasefire proposal put forward by Washington aimed at ending the ongoing Middle East conflict. The cautious market...

Politics

Russia-Iran Military Alliance Deepens With Drone Shipments Amid Middle East Tensions

Moscow is moving closer to completing a multi-phase transfer of lethal drones, medicine, and food supplies to Tehran, according to Western intelligence sources cited by the Financial Times. The deliveries are designed to...

Iran-U.S. Negotiations: Tehran Reviews American Peace Proposal Amid Ongoing Gulf Conflict

Irans foreign minister confirmed Wednesday that Tehran is examining a United States peace proposal aimed at ending the escalating Gulf war, though officials stressed this falls short of direct negotiations between the two...

FEMA Reinstates $1 Billion Disaster Prevention Grant Program After Court Order

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has announced the resumption of a key disaster prevention initiative after facing legal challenges that forced the reversal of its earlier cancellation. The agency is once again...

Taiwan Arms Deal on Track Despite U.S.-China Summit Uncertainty

Taiwans Defense Minister Wellington Koo confirmed Thursday that the next major U.S. arms sale to the island remains on schedule, revealing that Taipei has already received a formal letter of guarantee from Washington...

G7 Foreign Ministers Gather in France Amid Global Tensions and U.S. Policy Uncertainty

Foreign ministers from the worlds top Western democracies have convened in France this week for a high-stakes two-day summit at the historic 12th-century Abbaye des Vaux-de-Cernay, located roughly 40 kilometers southwest...

Science

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Technology

Reflection AI Eyes $25 Billion Valuation in Massive $2.5 Billion Funding Round

Nvidia-backed artificial intelligence startup Reflection AI is in advanced discussions to secure $2.5 billion in fresh funding, with negotiations pointing to a staggering pre-money valuation of $25 billion, according to a...

Nanya Technology Shares Surge 10% After $2.5 Billion Private Placement from Sandisk and Cisco

Shares of Taiwan-based memory chip manufacturer Nanya Technology soared to their daily limit of 10% on Thursday morning following the companys announcement of a major $2.5 billion private placement deal backed by prominent...

SK Hynix Eyes Up to $14 Billion U.S. IPO to Fund AI Chip Expansion

South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix has submitted a confidential filing for a U.S. stock market listing in 2026, with sources indicating the move could raise as much as $14 billion. The company intends to offer...

Meta Ties Executive Pay to Aggressive Stock Price Targets in Major Retention Push

Meta Platforms made a significant move this week by granting restricted stock units and stock options to several of its most senior leaders, including Chief Financial Officer Susan Li and Chief Technology Officer Andrew...

SpaceX IPO Filing Expected This Week as Valuation Could Surpass $75 Billion

Elon Musks SpaceX is reportedly moving closer to going public, with plans to submit its initial public offering prospectus to regulators as early as this week or next, according to a report by The Information citing a...