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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

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Economy

​South Korea Warns Weak Won Could Push Inflation Higher in 2025

South Koreas central bank has warned that inflation next year could exceed earlier projections if the Korean won remains weak against the U.S. dollar, raising concerns about price stability and currency market pressures....

Chinese Robotaxi Stocks Rally as Tesla Boosts Autonomous Driving Optimism

Chinese robotaxi stocks surged in Hong Kong trading on Wednesday, tracking strong overnight gains in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) as investor optimism around autonomous driving and ride-hailing technology continued to build....

Asian Currencies Slip as Dollar Strengthens; Indian Rupee Rebounds on Intervention Hopes

Most Asian currencies edged lower on Wednesday as investors weighed the U.S. Federal Reserves future interest rate path following mixed signals from the latest U.S. labor market data. At the same time, the Indian rupee...

Gold and Silver Surge as Safe Haven Demand Rises on U.S. Economic Uncertainty

Gold prices climbed during Asian trading on Wednesday, while silver prices surged to a fresh all-time high, as growing concerns over the U.S. economy fueled strong demand for safe haven assets. Investors increasingly...

Trump Orders Blockade of Sanctioned Oil Tankers, Raising Venezuela Tensions and Oil Prices

U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, dramatically escalating Washingtons pressure on President Nicolas Maduros government and...

Politics

NSW to Recall Parliament for Urgent Gun and Protest Law Reforms After Bondi Beach Shooting

The Australian state of New South Wales will recall parliament next week to pass sweeping reforms to gun ownership and protest laws following the countrys deadliest mass shooting in more than 30 years. The move comes just...

Pakistan’s Army Chief Faces Gaza Troop Dilemma Amid US Pressure

Pakistans most powerful military leader in decades, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is facing a critical test of his expanded authority as the United States presses Islamabad to contribute troops to a proposed Gaza stabilisation...

Trump Taps Former DHS Official Troy Edgar for U.S. Ambassador Role in El Salvador

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he intends to nominate Troy Edgar as the next United States ambassador to El Salvador, highlighting the administrations continued focus on strengthening diplomatic and...

Lukashenko Urges Swift Ukraine Peace Deal, Backs Trump’s Push for Rapid Resolution

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has called for urgent action to end the war in Ukraine, voicing support for U.S. President Donald Trumps push for a rapid resolution while Washington continues diplomatic efforts...

Trump Administration Moves to Keep TransAlta Coal Plant Running Amid Rising AI Power Demand

The U.S. Energy Secretary has signed an emergency order to keep a key coal-fired power unit at the TransAlta-owned Centralia Generating Station in Washington state operating through much of the winter, marking the latest...

Science

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves Breakthrough Success With First NASA Mission

Blue Origins massive New Glenn rocket marked a major milestone as it completed its first mission for paying customers, sending two NASA satellites toward Mars and successfully landing its reusable booster at sea. The...

Cogent Biosciences Soars 120% on Breakthrough Phase 3 Results for Bezuclastinib in GIST Treatment

Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ: COGT) shares skyrocketed over 120% after the biotech company announced groundbreaking results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib in combination with sunitinib for patients with...

Trump and Merck KGaA Partner to Slash IVF Drug Costs and Expand Fertility Coverage

U.S. President Donald Trump and German pharmaceutical company Merck KGaA have announced a groundbreaking deal aimed at lowering the cost of in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments while boosting access to fertility care in...

Technology

noyb Files GDPR Complaints Against TikTok, Grindr, and AppsFlyer Over Alleged Illegal Data Tracking.

A European privacy advocacy group has filed fresh complaints against TikTok, Grindr, and AppsFlyer, accusing the companies of violating European Union privacy laws by unlawfully tracking and sharing sensitive user data...

MetaX IPO Soars as China’s AI Chip Stocks Ignite Investor Frenzy

Shares of Chinese AI chipmaker MetaX Integrated Circuits delivered a stunning market debut, soaring more than 600% above their initial public offering price as domestic investors poured into local semiconductor stocks. The...

Apple Explores India for iPhone Chip Assembly as Manufacturing Push Accelerates

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is reportedly in early-stage discussions with Indian semiconductor companies to explore the assembly and packaging of iPhone components in India, marking a potential shift in the companys global...

Amazon in Talks to Invest $10 Billion in OpenAI as AI Firm Eyes $1 Trillion IPO Valuation

Amazon.com Inc is reportedly in discussions to make a major investment in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, in a potential deal that could value the artificial intelligence company at more than $500 billion, according to a...

SUPERFORTUNE Launches AI-Powered Mobile App, Expanding Beyond Web3 Into $392 Billion Metaphysics Market

SUPERFORTUNE, a web3 AI application incubated by Manta Network, has launched its first mobile application, expanding beyond crypto-native users into the global consumer market. The SUPERFORTUNE mobile app delivers...
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