Mar 09, 2017 04:57 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks
In just a week, markets went from doubting a March rate increase toviewing oneas a sure bet. The central banks top brass engineered the changeby speaking in favor of ahike, culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellens...
Mar 08, 2017 12:17 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
Cable is the most over-valued G10 currency versus the dollar (refer above chart). Indeed, cable is more expensive versus 2Y rate spreads than at any point in the last five years. Fair-value currently languishes at 1.15,...
Mar 08, 2017 07:38 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
CADJPY screens extremely cheap on our 1M gamma grid while EURJPY is materially expensive (refer above chart). CADJPY EURJPY 1M ATM spreads is nearly flat (zero) on mids, whereas the close-to-close realized vol spread...
Mar 08, 2017 06:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
The EURJPY volatility surface is currently offering very attractive opportunities, as ATM volatility is rich and 6m/1y skews are excessively priced. Here, we recommend a couple of trades taking advantage of both the...
FxWirePro: Fed’s rest of 2017 to drive dollar derivatives baskets on stimulated OIS and UST yields
Mar 07, 2017 13:25 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks
Yellen dropped a heavy hint last week that a rate hike was coming on the Ides of March. That too is the day of the Dutch general election, though it remains unlikely that the populist Party for Freedom will secure a...
Mar 07, 2017 06:11 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
On the back of political fears pressuring the euro, EURAUD has lost about 750 pips (about 5.12%) since the start of the year and the risk-friendly mood supporting the AUD via metals. But the pair is now testing the 1.37...
FxWirePro: EUR/PLN seems attractive carry among outright trades ahead of European political risks
Mar 06, 2017 11:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
In 2016 we recommended a series of defensive trades into the Brexit and US election votes1 because we felt that political risks were underestimated. Going into the French elections we believe it is hard to say that...
Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility
Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget
Why Germany ditched nuclear before coal – and why it won’t go back
Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board
Sudan: civil war stretches into a second year with no end in sight