FxWirePro: Reshuffling of option trades in commodity driven currencies
Mar 13, 2017 12:56 pm UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views
The FOMC is likely to enact a3rd hike in the federal funds rate this week. On Wednesday, March 15, the FOMC is likely to hike its funds rate by 25 basis points for the third time during the current economic...
FxWirePro: EUR/USD 3m3m FVAs to render asymmetric political hedge
Mar 13, 2017 09:09 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views
The European election-distorted EUR/EUR-cross vol curves: The risk premium for the French elections has distorted EUR-and EUR-cross vol surfaces. 3M-1M vol curves have steepened enormously due to the boost to 3M expiries...
Mar 13, 2017 06:59 am UTC| Central Banks Insights & Views Research & Analysis
As expected, theEuropean central bank (ECB)left all benchmark interest rates on hold following the latest Council meeting, with the main refi rate remaining at 0.0% and the deposit rate at -0.40%. According to the...
Mar 13, 2017 03:38 am UTC| Research & Analysis
Moodys Investors Service says that the likely persistence of capital outflows from China (Aa3 negative) over the rest of this year could constrain monetary policy and may lead to a more activist fiscal policy, if the...
FxWirePro: What drives buying cheaper downside Cable volatility and convexity?
Mar 10, 2017 12:39 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
Cable volatility has been extremely directional since 2012, with a strong and stable negative correlation. The Brexit vote in June 2016 initiated a new vol regime (unlike the FX/rates relationship which did not change...
FxWirePro: Red flags for cable and hedging vehicle for risk events
Mar 10, 2017 12:00 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
Cable outlook: Medium-term FX/rates correlation holds again; Fed will hike and MPC wont. Uncertainty is now about the impact of triggering Article 50, not whether or not it happens. 2m vol is undervalued by 2 vols...
FxWirePro: Volatility relative to 10y tails assuming next Fed hike odds
Mar 10, 2017 11:48 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views
Although the March meeting ended last week a roughly 1:4 shot for a hike, a range of FOMC members and the Chair herself pushed it to fully priced by this Thursday. With March fully priced, markets should turn to focus...
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