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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

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Economy

Why China’s economy has hit a wall

Chinas annual parliamentary meetings in Beijing came to a close on March 11. They were conducted under great pressure: a weak economy and high expectations from both the domestic public and international observers as to...

Vladimir Putin’s gold strategy explains why sanctions against Russia have failed

There are more than 16,000 sanctions imposed against Russia. Yet the Russian economy and war machine grew by 3.6 per cent in 2023 and is projected to grow another 2.6 in 2024. Nearly six per cent of Russias gross...

Mentorship is key to improving social and economic outcomes for Black youth

Black youth in Canada experience poorer educational achievement than other children and youth, which leads to subsequent poor economic outcomes. A series of problems and barriers contribute to poor educational outcomes....

There’s an extra $1 billion on the table for NT schools. This could change lives if spent well

The federal and Northern Territory governments have just made a historic funding announcement of about A$1 billion for schools in the territory. This includes an extra $737.7 million from the federal government and an...

Undersea cables for Africa’s internet retrace history and leave digital gaps as they connect continents

Large parts of west and central Africa, as well as some countries in the south of the continent, were left without internet services on 14 March because of failures on four of the fibre optic cables that run below the...

Politics

China's Commerce Minister to Advocate EV Sector in Europe Amid Subsidy, Tariff Probe

Chinas Commerce Minister Wang Wentao is set to visit Europe in April to address concerns and advocate for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry amid a European Commission investigation into alleged unfair...

Chinese Hackers Target US Officials and Dissidents in Cyber Espionage Scheme

Seven nationals of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) face charges for a long-term cyber espionage campaign targeting political dissidents and officials in the US, marking a significant escalation in international cyber...

SpaceX Builds Spy Satellites for US; Russia Warns of Military Response

Russia has issued a stark warning to the United States, stating that the use of SpaceXs satellites for espionage could render them targets for military action. This follows revelations that SpaceX is constructing a spy...

Deepfakes are still new, but 2024 could be the year they have an impact on elections

Disinformation caught many people off guard during the 2016 Brexit referendum and US presidential election. Since then, a mini-industry has developed to analyse and counter it. Yet despite that, we have entered 2024 a...

Science

How do airplanes fly? An aerospace engineer explains the physics of flight

Airplane flight is one of the most significant technological achievements of the 20th century. The invention of the airplane allows people to travel from one side of the planet to the other in less than a day, compared...

The mystery of consciousness shows there may be a limit to what science alone can achieve

The progress of science in the last 400 years is mind-blowing. Who would have thought wed be able to trace the history of our universe to its origins 14 billion years ago? Science has increased the length and the quality...

What is minoxidil, the anti-balding hair growth treatment? Here’s what the science says

Hair loss (also known as alopecia) often affects the scalp but can occur anywhere on the body. Its very common and usually nothing to worry about; about half of Australian men show signs of visible baldness at age 50 and...

Our survey of the sky is uncovering the secrets of how planets are born

When we look out to the stars, it is typically not a yearning for the distant depths of outer space that drives us. When we are looking out there, we are truly looking back at ourselves. We try to understand our place in...

Archeoastronomy uses the rare times and places of previous total solar eclipses to help us measure history

Total solar eclipses have fascinated and terrified people for centuries. Today, we know that total solar eclipses like the upcoming eclipse on April 8 are caused by a cosmic coincidence when the moon comes between the...

Technology

Porsche Recalls 1,000 Taycan EVs Over Battery Issue

Porsche Cars North America Inc. released a recall notice for its Taycan electric car units. Based on the reports, the company issued the recall due to the risk of a short circuit caused by the battery. Porsche recalls...

Shiba Inu Community, Binance Stir Crypto World; Token Burns Fuel Market Surge

In a striking turn of events, the Shiba Inu community has reacted to Binances provocative statement declaring everyone an NFT amidst a significant uptick in SHIB token burns that spurred its market value. The meme coins...

Amazon One App Launches Palm-Scanning Sign Up; Palm Pay Available at Whole Foods, Panera

Amazon now allows users to set up palm recognition for seamless payments at Whole Foods, Panera, and other locations directly from their smartphones. Amazon One Expands with Mobile App for Easy Palm Recognition...

Crypto ATM Installations Set to Skyrocket, Driven by Bitcoin FOMO, CEO Predicts

As the crypto industry anticipates a surge in Bitcoin interest post-halving, Bitcoin Depot CEO Brandon Mintz predicts a significant resurgence in crypto ATM installations worldwide. This optimism follows a decline in 2023...
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