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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

Poll wrap: Morrison's ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth's huge difference in on-the-day and early voting

Oct 29, 2018 19:31 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens...

Poll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria

Oct 16, 2018 15:12 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11%...

Poll wrap: Worst reaction to midterm PM change in Newspoll history; contrary polls in Dutton's Dickson

Aug 28, 2018 12:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 24-26 - the days following the leadership spill - from a sample of 1,780, gave Labor a massive 56-44 lead, a five point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41%...

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Economy

What if the Reserve Bank itself has been feeding inflation? An economist explains

Heres something for the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia to ponder as it meets next month to set interest rates. It has pushed up rates on 13 occasions since it began its attempt to restrain inflation in May...

China’s new world order: looking for clues from Xi’s recent meetings with foreign leaders

There is broad consensus that Chinese foreign policy has become more assertive and more centralised in the decade since Xi Jinping has ascended to the top of Chinas leadership. This has also meant that Chinese foreign...

How India’s economy has fared under ten years of Narendra Modi

More than 960 million Indians will head to the polls in the worlds biggest election between April 19 and early June. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is seeking a third...

Will global oil supply be at risk if Iran and Israel pull the Middle East into war?

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated following Irans weekend missile and drone attacks on Israel, heightening concerns of a wider conflict. As with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, further conflict has the...

EU enlargement: What does the future hold?

To widen or to deepen. This has been one of the longstanding dilemmas throughout European Union (EU) history, and a perennial sticking point in the unending process of European integration. In its time, the UK...

Politics

Georgia is sliding towards autocracy after government moves to force through bill on ‘foreign agents’

Georgias ruling party attempted to pass a controversial bill on foreign agents in March 2023. The law would have required civil society groups and the media to register as being under foreign influence if they receive...

South Korean President Yoon faces foreign policy challenges after the National Assembly election

South Koreas parliamentary election of April 10, 2024, was widely seen as a referendum on President Yoon Suk Yeols first two years in office. That being the case, the nation collectively expressed its strong...

How will US foreign policy affect Joe Biden’s chances of re-election in November?

When big questions about American foreign policy collide with an election, its rarely good news for a sitting president. Like many leaders before him, US President Joe Biden has had some of these questions thrust on...

US Commerce Secretary Asserts Huawei Chip Lag, Affirms Export Control Success

In an interview on CBS News 60 Minutes, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated that the latest Huawei Mate 60 Pro phones chip remains significantly behind U.S. technology despite being the most advanced from China. She...

‘We have thousands of Modis’: the secret behind the BJP’s enduring success in India

Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modis popularity has grown exponentially and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP...

Science

The rising flood of space junk is a risk to us on Earth – and governments are on the hook

A piece of space junk recently crashed through the roof and floor of a mans home in Florida. Nasa later confirmed that the object had come from unwanted hardware released from the international space station. The 700g,...

Peter Higgs was one of the greats of particle physics. He transformed what we know about the building blocks of the universe

Peter Higgs, who gave his name to the subatomic particle known as the Higgs boson, has died aged 94. He was always a modest man, especially when considering that he was one of the greats of particle physics the area of...

Could a telescope ever see the beginning of time? An astronomer explains

The James Webb Space Telescope, or JWST for short, is one of the most advanced telescopes ever built. Planning for JWST began over 25 years ago, and construction efforts spanned over a decade. It was launched into space on...

US media coverage of new science less likely to mention researchers with African and East Asian names

When one Chinese national recently petitioned the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to become a permanent resident, he thought his chances were pretty good. As an accomplished biologist, he figured that news...

If life exists on Jupiter’s moon Europa, scientists might soon be able to detect it

Europa is one of the largest of more than 90 moons in orbit around the planet Jupiter. It is also one of the best places to look for alien life. Often termed an ocean world by scientists, observations to date strongly...

Technology

Mercedes-Benz to Release Luxury Electric Van in China

Mercedes-Benz, the German luxury and commercial vehicle manufacturer, plans to release a luxury electric van model in China. This information was shared by the companys head of the vans unit, Mathias Geisen, to the local...

Samourai Wallet Founders Arrested, Crypto Markets Tumble Amid Regulatory Heat

The cryptocurrency market dipped significantly after the U.S. Department of Justice arrested Samourai Wallets CEO and CTO, exacerbating volatility amid geopolitical tensions and the recent Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin and...

Post-Halving Surge: Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $150K on Reduced Market Leverage

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered Banks analyst and head of digital assets research, believes bitcoin (BTC) would likely trend upward following the halving due to lower leveraged market positions. In an interview with...

Tesla Cybertruck Hits 1,000-Unit Weekly Production Amid Q1 Financial Shortfalls

Tesla announced a milestone in Cybertruck production, achieving 1,000 units per week concurrently with reporting lower-than-expected financial results for Q1 2024. Despite missing revenue and earnings estimates, Teslas...

IBM Acquires HashiCorp, Giving Its Hybrid-Cloud Business a Boost

IBM, or the International Business Machines Corporation, announced it will buy the San Francisco-based software company HashiCorp on Wednesday, April 24. IBMs Strategic Acquisition IBMs acquisition of HashiCorp,...