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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections.

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

Poll wrap: Morrison's ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth's huge difference in on-the-day and early voting

Oct 29, 2018 19:31 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens...

Poll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria

Oct 16, 2018 15:12 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11%...

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Economy

U.S. Treasuries slip ahead of host of FOMC members’ speeches

The U.S. Treasuries slipped slightly during Fridays afternoon session ahead of a host of speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Williams and Rosengren, scheduled to be delivered today by 12:15GMT...

RBNZ likely to leave OCR on hold at 1.00 pct next week, leave door open to further cuts: ANZ Research

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to leave the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 1.00 percent at its monetary policy meeting next Wednesday, but leave the door open to further cuts, according to the...

UK gilts suffer after BoE’s unchanged policy decision fails to create major market impact

The United Kingdoms gilts suffered during European trading hours Friday, after the Bank of Englands (BoE) unchanged monetary policy decision did not create any major economic impact on markets, thus making investors trade...

German bunds edge tad higher after August producer price index disappoints markets

The German bunds edged tad higher during European trading session Friday after the countrys producer price index (PPI) for the month of August, disappointed market participants, going into negative territory from the prior...

JGBs close mixed in silent trading session ahead of long weekend

The Japanese government bonds closed mixed on Friday as investors remained divided amid a silent session that barely witnessed data of major economic significance ahead of the countrys long weekend, following Autumn...

Politics

Melania Trump faces backlash over fashion choices on 9/11 anniversary

Melania Trumps commemoration of the September 11 attacks 18th anniversary has been marred with yet another fashion-related controversy. Online critics claimed that the stitch work on the back portion of the First Ladys...

Destroying parliaments leads to war – just look at history

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnsons recent prorogation of parliament has led many to fear that parliamentary democracy in Britain is unravelling. And now the High Court has ruled that Johnson acted lawfully in suspending it....

Where 'woke' came from and why marketers should think twice before jumping on the social activism bandwagon

First used in the 1940s, the term woke has resurfaced in recent years as a concept that symbolises awareness of social issues and movement against injustice, inequality, and prejudice. But popularity has diluted its...

Rudd's rental affordability scheme was a $1 billion gift to developers; Abbott was right to axe it

Most Australians are spending more of their income on housing than they used to, but low-income households are being squeezed the hardest. Many are in poverty, and many more are suffering financial stress. A growing...

John Legend tweets Melania Trump should praise Donald Trump more

The United States President Donald Trump has once again had a tweetstorm directed, this time, at John Legend and Chrissy Teigen. The All of Me singer responded by suggesting that POTUS might have calmed down if only the...

Science

New prostate cancer treatment delivers good result in week

There may not be a one-stop cancer cure available to the market yet, but scientists have developed more advanced treatment strategies that increase the survivability rate among cancer patients. Researchers from the United...

HIV hides in many places in the body, Belgian researchers confirm

HIV can hide within the patients body, making it difficult to completely eradicate. With the hopes of finding an HIV cure, researchers from the Belgium-based university UZ Gent recently reported a milestone of locating...

Can we really know what animals are thinking?

Sarah, the worlds smartest chimp, died in July 2019, just before her 60th birthday. For the majority of her life she served as a research subject, providing scientists with a window into the thoughts of homo sapiens...

Cancer cells naturally die in microgravity, scientist finds

The possibilities are endless when it comes to studying potential factors that could stop the growth of cancer cells. For one, a scientist based in Australia discovered that cancer cells naturally die when exposed to...

HIV cure study finds good results from a rare muscle illness

One of the greatest tasks of medical science experts today is finding a cure for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). While that has not been achieved yet, many studies have resulted in further understanding the...

Technology

‘Borderlands 3’ gets hotfixes a week after release

It has only been a week since Borderlands 3 was released, and Gearbox already issued a list of hotfixes to improve the game and address some minor bugs. Some of the most interesting changes are applied in the Mayhem Mode...

‘Cyberpunk 2077’ release date: Immersion cited as the main reason why the game is in the first-person view

Cyberpunk 2077 has been created as a first-person shooter and that decision has led to some criticism from the gaming community. Accusations have been thrown on CD Projekt Reds feet that they went this route to save money...

PlayStation 5 could have a Pro version immediately in 2020

For Sony, PlayStation 4 is its first gaming platform where it introduced a more advanced variant that goes by the name of PS4 Pro. Its release made sense because, from the time the PS4 was launched in 2013 to the present,...

‘Dota 2’ trolls, account buyers hit by ban hammers; Valve rolling out changes to decrease in-game toxicity

The Dota 2 community has been asking Valve time and again to provide some form of solution to the persisting presence of smurfing, account buying, and overall toxic behavior. Now, the company is finally rolling out some...

Warriors apparently interested in adding Giannis Antetokounmpo into their roster

The rumor about Giannis Antetokounmpo possibly getting poached by the Golden State Warriors has resurfaced again. The narrative first emerged in February when Marc Stein of the New York Times said that the Warriors has...
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