China's inflation to bottom out

Jul 06, 2015 00:47 am UTC| Commentary

Chinas CPI is expected to rebound to 1.4% yoy from 1.2% yoy in May. The biggest contributor should have been faster food inflation. The high-frequency agriculture prices pointed to a mom increase of 0.5% in food CPI in...

UK manufacturing output to eke out a small gain

Jul 06, 2015 00:41 am UTC| Commentary

The CBI and PMI manufacturing surveys have both indicated weakness in April and May after reasonably strong output growth in March. The official data show a fall of 0.4% mom in April which we think exaggerates the...

After the ‘No’ vote, Grexit not a foregone conclusion

Jul 06, 2015 00:40 am UTC| Commentary

The Greek referendum appears to have led to a large victory of the No vote. At 1am CET, with 90% of the vote counted, the No was largely ahead with 61.5% of votes. A "reject" vote at the referendum marks a first step...

German exports expected to decline in May but gradually improving

Jul 05, 2015 23:58 pm UTC| Commentary

In May, the German trade surplus is expected to have amounted to 20.4bn, down from 21.8bn in April. Exports are expected to have decreased by 0.5% mom, but that reflects more a correction for the three strong previous...

US non-manufacturing ISM to rise modestly

Jul 05, 2015 23:16 pm UTC| Commentary

The US manufacturing ISM report released last week suggests that the factory sector is rebounding from its earlier weakness. The non-manufacturing ISM index has fared much better all along and is expected to remain at a...

Greece referendum and next steps

Jul 05, 2015 22:12 pm UTC| Commentary

The official projections are out; with 70% of votes counted, the no vote looks to have achieved a comfortable majority (60%). The Greek authorities have indicated a desire to re-start negotiations on a third programme...

Four things the Greek referendum will not change

Jul 05, 2015 22:01 pm UTC| Commentary

Greek voting stations close at 18h00 CET with the first exit poll expected shortly after. If the knife-edge vote indicated by the most recent opinion polls hold true, it will be the early hours of Monday before the actual...