NZD/USD jumps on upbeat labour market release, sees downtrend in medium term

Feb 03, 2016 10:31 am UTC| Commentary

The New Zealand Dollar was able to appreciate overnight amid continuous risk aversion in the market. The recovery was partly due to upbeat labour market release for the fourth quarter of 2015, and largely due to the speech...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

Market now price in no hike from FED in 2016

Feb 03, 2016 10:13 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Market participants are now seeing no chance of a hike in 2016, especially as volatility returned in the market. Bank of Japans (BOJ) introduction of negative rates seem to have only paused the selloffs for a day and...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Demographics likely to continue weighing on Russia’s potential growth

Feb 03, 2016 09:46 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Russias growth is likely to be pulled down due to demographics. The working-age population is likely to continue reducing by 0.3%-0.7% y/y. The participation rate is expected to decline due to ageing of population. A...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

Esther George – return of a hawk

Feb 03, 2016 09:37 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

A well-known hawk and dissenter of FED policy is back on the core-committee of FOMC this year, who will be a decision maker in the board. In the past, Ms. George has remained critique of ultra-loose monetary policy of...

China Crisis Series

RBNZ likely to ease monetary policy by 25bps in March

Feb 03, 2016 09:34 am UTC| Commentary

New Zealands employment was better than expected in the fourth quarter, as a decline in participation dragged the unemployment rate to 5.3 percent as compared to previous 6.0 percent. The labour cost index was firm at 1.6...

What’s the point of forward guidance, if it misleads?

Feb 03, 2016 08:56 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Bank of Japans (BOJ) last weeks action is clearly providing evidence that central bankers of the world are relying more on shock therapy than providing actual guidance. So the question is coming is the era of forward...

Russia’s CPI likely to slow to around 9% by mid-2016, 7.3% by late 2016 on decelerating core inflation

Feb 03, 2016 08:42 am UTC| Commentary

Russias economy contracted sharply in 9m15 with GDP declining 3.7% due to international sanctions, terms of trade shock, tightening of monetary policy and the countrys countersanctions. Russias domestic demand has been...