Inflation: I've been analysing the Bank of England's forecast over the past two years – here's how they got it wrong 
If the RBA’s right, interest rates may not fall for another year. Here’s why. 
If central banks don't start cutting them soon, it could actually increase inflation 
The RBA has kept interest rates on hold. Here's why it'll be cautious from here on 
What central banks are doing to safeguard financial stability and why they must proceed with caution 
Governments have been able to overrule the Reserve Bank for 80 years. Why stop now? 
Why the Bank of England is now more upbeat than the IMF 
Bank of Japan's (BOJ) last week's action is clearly providing evidence that central bankers of the world are relying more on shock therapy than providing actual guidance. So the question is coming is the era of forward guidance, pioneered by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, coming to an end?
If so, then market participants need to rely more on the usual, like data than central bankers' wordings.
Before last week's actions on numerous occasion BOJ chief has asserted that negative rates are not for Japan, BOJ not to experiment with negative rates and so on. So the actions didn't follow his sayings. BOJ is not alone in this however, last year in January Swiss National Bank (SNB) withdrew from Euro-Franc peg just assuring markets, three days before that it remains corner stone of policy.
FED on the other hand is not really guilty of misleading but its communications say that actions to rely on data, which is not much of a guide. Its dot plot is somewhat misleading. In 2015 FED participants were eyeing several hikes, but delivered just one. Similarly, again in 2016, participants are expecting four, which is simply misguided and FED again will not be delivering that much. That pose another question - why central bankers are misreading their probable future actions?
European Central Bank is also guilty to some extent. Technically they might say that the policymakers haven't promised any big bazooka but their communications led to massive miscommunications. ECB staffs were stressing the need to do much more to bring inflation back to the path as soon as possible. But actions were punitive. It has again promised to take up measures (possibly) in March but economically much hasn't changed since except for increased volatility and drop in crude oil price. That pose another question - Has market actions - reactions affecting policy much more than it used to?
If the answer to the last is yes, then that poses serious doubts, over policy horizon- if the bankers will ever be able to withdraw stimulus.
