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U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he is prepared to allow the last remaining U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty, known as New START, to expire without accepting a Russian proposal to voluntarily extend limits on nuclear weapons deployments. The remarks, released Thursday, have heightened concerns among arms control advocates about the future of global nuclear stability.
In an interview with the New York Times conducted Wednesday, Trump said of the 2010 New START agreement, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll just do a better agreement.” The treaty, which is set to expire on February 5, caps the United States and Russia at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 delivery systems, including missiles, submarines, and bombers.
Arms control experts warn that the expiration of New START could prompt both nuclear superpowers to expand their strategic arsenals beyond current limits, accelerating the breakdown of the international arms control framework. Thomas Countryman, former U.S. assistant secretary of state for arms control and current chair of the Arms Control Association, said there are figures within the Trump administration who support abandoning the treaty’s constraints.
A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked whether the administration would accept an offer from Russian President Vladimir Putin, made in September, to voluntarily maintain the treaty’s limits after its expiration. While Trump previously stated in July that he favored maintaining the existing caps, his latest remarks suggest a shift in position.
New START cannot be extended further. It allowed only one extension, which was exercised in 2021 when Putin and former President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years. Since then, the treaty has been under strain. Russia suspended its participation in verification measures in February 2023, citing U.S. support for Ukraine, and the United States followed by halting inspections and data exchanges, though both sides have continued to observe the numerical limits.
Trump has reiterated that any successor agreement should include China, whose nuclear arsenal is growing rapidly. Beijing has rejected this proposal, arguing that its nuclear forces are far smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia. A recent Pentagon report noted China’s expansion of intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities and its reluctance to engage in arms control talks.
As the New START expiration approaches, uncertainty over future nuclear arms control continues to grow, with significant implications for global security and strategic stability.
