Market Roundup
•German Jan Retail Sales (MoM) -0.4%, 0.5% forecast,-1.6% previous
•German Jan Retail Sales (YoY) -1.4%, -1.5% forecast,-1.7% previous
•French Feb CPI (MoM) 0.8%, 0.7% forecast,-0.3% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.1%,0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•French Jan Consumer Spending (MoM) -0.3% ,-0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•French GDP (YoY)0.7%, 0.7% forecast,0.6% previous
•French HICP (MoM)0.9%,0.7% forecast,-0.2% previous
•Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3%,0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.6%,0.7% forecast,0.3% previous
•German Feb Unemployment Change 11K,6K forecast,-2K previous
•German Feb Unemployment Rate 5.9%,5.8% forecast,5.8% previous
•German Feb German Unemployment 2.713M ,2.694M previous
•German Feb CPI (YoY) 2.1%, 2.2% previous
•German Feb CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast,0.2% previous
•German Feb CPI (YoY) 2.5%, 2.6% forecast,2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q4)-0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q4)1.80% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8% forecast,-1.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan Personal Income (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Jan Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•13:30 US Jan Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.5% previous
•13:30 US Jan PCE price index (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:30 US Jan PCE Price index (YoY) 2.4% forecast,2.6% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.47% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec GDP (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 209K forecast, 201K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims1,874K forecast,1,862K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.215.25K previous
•14:45 US Feb Chicago PMI 48.1 forecast,46.0 previous
•15:00 US Jan Pending Home Sales Index 77.3 previous
•15:00 US Jan Pending Home Sales (MoM) 1.4% forecast,8.3% previous
•16:00 US Feb KC Fed Composite Index -9 previous
•16:00 US Feb KC Fed Manufacturing Index -17 previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)3.2% forecast,3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:50 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•18:15 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
•22:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday after data showed German inflation fell in several of the country's economically important states. Preliminary data showed inflation fell in six economically important German states in February, suggesting inflation is on its downward trajectory. Inflation also slowed in France although it was slightly higher than expected, and slowed more sharply in Spain. Investors are awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for clues on the timeline for U.S. rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0872(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0803(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0742 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped against the dollar on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. inflation data that could give clues on the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.The pound has held up better than all other major currencies against the dollar in 2024, down around 0.2% so far this year at about $1.269. And while it has had a decent rally from early February's two-month lows, overall, it has been broadly stuck in a range of around $1.251 to $1.278 since the third week in December. The Bank of England is one thing that could give the pound a nudge and while it is still expected to cut interest rates later this year, traders think it will cut by less, and far later, than they thought just three weeks ago.The assumption that the BoE will move later than the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank has given the pound something of an edge in the past 12 months . Sterling was down around 0.1% at $1.2647 and set for a small monthly decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2685(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2709(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2640(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2629(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data, which is likely to set the tone for rate cut expectations. A variety of economic data is due on Thursday, but centre stage belongs to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. The Federal Reserve's favoured measure of U.S. inflation and hence most important inflation print for global markets - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - is due at 1330 GMT.Forecasts are for a rise of 0.4% month on month. Reports on consumer and producer prices earlier in February signaled sticky inflation and a guarded approach from Fed policymakers, which prompted investors to push back expectations of rate cuts to June from March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8846(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8900(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8756(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8693(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday after Bank of Japan policymaker hinted at the need to exit ultra-easy policies. The dollar was down 0.47% against the yen at 149.98 after Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said he felt there were finally prospects for achieving the bank's 2% inflation target, paving the way to leave behind negative rates and yield caps.At one point it was down as much as 0.72%, which would be the dollar's biggest daily fall against the yen in 2024, though that's in large part a reflection of how few days of strength the yen has had this year - the dollar is still up 1.8% on the Japanese currency in February. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.00(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.69(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Thursday, buoyed by upbeat earnings reports, while German stocks touched fresh records after early readings showed inflation fell in several of the country's economically important states.
At (GMT 13:19 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.18 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold remained trapped within a narrow range on Thursday, as investors exercised patience in the run up to a key U.S. inflation number and remarks from Federal Reserve officials to glean clarity on the trajectory of interest rates.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,030.62 per ounce, as of 1058 GMT, trading in a narrow $7 range in the session so far. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% at $2,038.80.
Oil prices were little changed Thursday as investors kept their powder dry ahead of U.S. data expected to offer further clues on the outlook for interest rates.
Brent crude futures for April were down 36 cents at $83.32 a barrel by 1157 GMT. The April contract expires on Thursday and the more active May contract was down 39 cents at $81.76. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 26 cents to $78.28.
