Market Roundup
• US Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov): 1,939K, 1,960K forecast, 1,943K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims (Nov): 191K, 219K forecast, 218K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (Nov): 214.75K, 224.25K previous
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.1% previous
• US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Sep): 0.6%, 0.6% previous
• US Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, 1.3% previous
• US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, -0.1% previous
•Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Nov): 44.5, 51.7 previous
•Canada Ivey PMI (Nov): 48.4, 53.6 forecast, 52.4 previous
•US Natural Gas Storage (Nov): -12B, -18B forecast, -11B previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 3.8%, 3.9% forecast, 3.9% previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction (Dec 5): 3.680%, 3.905% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction (Dec 5): 3.620%, 3.840% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Oct) 1.8% forecast, 1.8% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (Oct) 108.6 previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Oct) 1.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as investors digested flat retail sales data from the eurozone and waited for fresh market catalysts. Retail sales were flat in October 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in September and missing expectations for a 0.1% increase, as gains in food, drink, tobacco and fuel were offset by weakness in non-food spending.The European Central Bank has reiterated its data-dependent approach, with a policy meeting due in two weeks and rates widely expected to remain unchanged. Markets currently assign only a one-in-four chance of easing next year. Still, the euro has climbed more than 12% this year its strongest annual performance since 2017supported earlier by a softer dollar amid tariff concerns and growing bets on U.S. rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1674(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1692(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as greenback recovered some ground as traders awaited a Fed interest rate cut. Data on Thursday appeared to assuage concerns of a sharp deterioration in U.S. labor market conditions. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a more than three-year low of 191,000 last week.That came after U.S. private payrolls data posted its biggest drop in more than two-and-a-half years, and following a survey of the services sector that showed activity held steady in November while hiring slowed. The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against six others, was up slightly by 0.17% on the day, easing earlier losses and poised to end nine straight sessions of declines.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3398(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3468(Oct 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3264(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3190(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar hit a five-week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday before giving up some gains, ahead of domestic jobs data that could influence the Bank of Canada’s next policy move. Canada’s November jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show a loss of 5,000 positions and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7% from 6.9% in October. However, this follows two months of strong job growth, while the central bank has indicated its easing cycle is on hold after cutting its benchmark rate to a three-year low of 2.25% in October.. Investors expect no change in rates at a policy decision next Wednesday. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3945 per U.S. dollar, after touching its strongest intraday level since October 29 at 1.39255. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3978 (Dec 5th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4020 (38.2%fibl).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3933(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3903 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened Thursday as the yen climbed amid expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December with the government expected to tolerate such a decision, three government sources familiar with the deliberations said.The BOJ looks set to proceed with a hike in its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%, which was flagged by Governor Kazuo Ueda in a speech on Monday, the sources said. It would be the first hike since January.Ueda said on Monday the BOJ will consider the "pros and cons" of raising rates this month, signaling a strong chance of a hike at the December 18-19 meeting. The dollar was last down 0.08% at 155.11 against the yen, which is heading for its largest weekly gain against the U.S. currency in over two months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.00 (Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, led by industrial and automotive stocks, as improved global risk sentiment on expectations of U.S. rate cuts offset mixed corporate updates.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.19percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.79 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.43 percent.
U.S. stocks ended Thursday little changed as investors digested labor market and economic data, while hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week provided support.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.07 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.11 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.22% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold traded flat on Thursday as gains from a weaker dollar were tempered by rising U.S. Treasury yields, with markets awaiting U.S. inflation data for signals on Fed policy.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,210.49 per ounce by 1833 GMT. U.S. gold futures for February settled 0.2% higher at $4,243.00 per ounce.
Oil prices ended Thursday higher on bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, while stalled Ukraine peace talks limited hopes of a deal restoring Russian oil flows.
Brent crude settled up 59 cents, or 0.94%, to $63.26. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled up 72 cents, or 1.22%, to $59.67.
