Market Roundup
• UK Car Registration (MoM) (Oct) -53.7%, 277.4% previous
• UK Car Registration (YoY) (Oct) 0.5%, 13.7% previous
•Italian Car Registration (MoM) (Oct) -0.7%, 88.4% previous
•Italian Car Registration (YoY) (Oct) -0.5%, 4.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
• 07:00 German GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov) -29 forecast, -27 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited key economic data from both the US and Germany. Several US indicators delayed by the government shutdown including retail sales, jobless claims, and producer price data are set to be released this week and are expected to provide clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory.The eurozone’s data calendar remains relatively light, with economic-sentiment and consumer-confidence surveys due. Germany, however, faces a busier schedule with final Q3 GDP, retail sales, and CPI all lined up for release. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its October policy meeting on Thursday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde is also slated to speak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1530(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1568(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1474(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1451(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Tuesday as traders awaited clarity from the upcoming UK budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her second annual budget on Wednesday, where she is expected to unveil another round of significant tax increases moves that will test the confidence of the governing Labour Party and draw close scrutiny from a wary bond market. Reeves has faced a difficult first 18 months managing the world’s sixth-largest economy. The former Bank of England economist and the first woman to serve as Chancellor has built her political brand around restoring stability after years of turmoil in British politics. However, weeks of mixed signals from both her and Prime Minister Keir Starmer regarding tax policy have strained trust among investors and voters alike, putting her credibility and potentially Stammer’s political standing under pressure. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3125(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3139(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2974(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar inched lower on Tuesday as investors awaited Australia’s upcoming CPI data for fresh direction. Traders are awaiting Australia’s first “complete” monthly CPI report for October, due Wednesday, to gain clearer guidance on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook. The data will offer a more comprehensive picture of inflation pressures especially in key categories such as housing and market-based services. Interest-rate swaps show almost no expectation of an RBA rate cut before May next year, with only around a 50% probability priced in for that meeting. The Aussie was last trading up at 0.14% at $0.6464. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Tuesday as Japanese yen strengthened growing intervention fears.Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Friday gave her most forceful statement to date, warning that the government could step in if markets show excessive volatility or disorderly behavior.Takuji Aida, who sits on an influential government panel, noted Sunday that Japan could intervene decisively in currency markets to cushion the economy from the impact of a weaker JPY.The yen has been struggling due to Japan’s low interest rates and loose fiscal policies, but it firmed slightly from 10-month lows after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama escalated verbal intervention threats.The yen has fallen roughly 6% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office, as investors worry about the heavy borrowing needed to fund her stimulus plans. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.66(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian shares rallied on Tuesday as expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut strengthened, while investors continued to pour into global tech stocks despite concerns of overheating.
China A50 jumped 0.64% and South Korea's Kospi was up 0.42%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.57%.
Commodities Recap
Gold extended its gains on Tuesday, climbing to a one-week high as dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials revived expectations of a December U.S. rate cut, allowing the metal to shrug off a firmer dollar.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,140.85 per ounce by 0457 GMT, the highest since November 14, building on a 1.8% advance on Monday.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery were 1.2% higher at $4,141.20 per ounce.
Oil prices eased on Tuesday as concerns supply will exceed demand next year outweighed worries that Russian shipments will remain under sanctions as talks to end the Ukraine war remain inconclusive.
Brent futures fell 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.10 a barrel as of 0500 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $58.61.
