Market Roundup
•US Core PPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Core PPI (YoY) (Sep): 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US PPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US PPI (YoY) (Sep): 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Sep): 2.9%, 2.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Sep): -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 4.26%, 5.02% previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct): -0.1%, 0.6% previous
•US Redbook (YoY): 5.9%, 6.1% previous
•US House Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.0%, 0.4% previous
•US House Price Index (YoY) (Sep): 1.7% , 2.4% previous
•US House Price Index (Sep): 435.4 , 435.6 previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.1% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Sep): 1.4%, 1.4% forecast, 1.6% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Sep): -0.5% , -0.6% previous
•US Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov): 88.7, 93.5 forecast, 95.5 previous
•US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct): 1.9%, 0.5% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Pending Home Sales Index (Oct): 76.3, 74.9 previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug): 0.0%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Nov): -15, -5 forecast, -4 previous
•US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Nov): -14 , 4 previous
•US Richmond Services Index (Nov): -4 , 4 previous
•US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Nov): -2.5 -6.4 previous
•US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Nov): -2.3 ,-9.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3): 0.4% forecast, 3.0% previous
•00:30 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Oct): 1.3% previous
•00:30 Australia CPI Index Number (Oct): 143.60 previous
•00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Oct): 1.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.50% previous
•00:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (QoQ) (Oct): 1.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.8% previous
•05:00 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY): 2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•01:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
•01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: 2.25% forecast, 2.50% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday following the release of September retail sales and producer price data. Data showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in September, less than 0.4% forecast by economists polled by Reuters and slowing from an unrevised 0.6% gain in August.Producer prices, on the other hand, increased 0.3%, in line with expectations, after an unrevised 0.1% drop in August. At the core level, however, prices inched up 0.1%, below the consensus forecast of 0.2%.On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the job market was weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December, though action beyond that depended on a flood of data that was delayed by the federal government shutdown.. The euro was up 0.1% at $1.1528.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1530(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1568(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1474(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1451(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling was on track for a fourth straight daily gain on Tuesday as the greenback weakened after U.S. data showed retail sales rose less than expected in September. Retail sales increased 0.2% following an unrevised 0.6% rise in August, the Commerce Department reported. The slowdown marked a softer handoff into the fourth quarter, though sales were still up 4.3% year-on-year. The report, originally scheduled for mid-October, was delayed by the 43-day U.S. government shutdown. Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices rose in September in line with expectations. In the UK, attention turns to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' crucial budget announcements due tomorrow. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3125(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3139(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2974(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as lower oil prices offset broad-based declines for the greenback. The U.S. dollar index slid as a slew of mixed economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Domestic data had little impact, with a preliminary estimate showing that wholesale trade declined 0.1% in October from September. The price of oil fell 1.8% to $57.79 a barrel after Ukraine hinted that an intense diplomatic push by the U.S. administration to end Russia's war against it could be yielding fruit. Oil is one of Canada's major exports, much of which goes to the United States. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4132(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4162(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4084(Nov 21st low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4054(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Tuesday after flurry of economic data, some of which was delayed due to the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.Retail sales rose 0.2% in September after an unrevised 0.6% gain in August, the Commerce Department said, short of the 0.4% rise expected by economists polled.The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index for final demandincreased 0.3% after an unrevised 0.1% drop in August, which matched expectations, as the cost of energy goods surged and producers passed on some tariff costs. Trading volume is likely to shrink as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday approaches on Thursday, when markets will be closed, followed by an abbreviated session on Friday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.91 (23.6fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.45(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.89 (SMA 20)
Equities Recap
European shares extended gains on Tuesday, driven by strength in materials and financial stocks, as investors remained optimistic about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.78 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.97 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.83 percent.
Wall Street extended its rally on Tuesday as a series of economic data bolstered expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may deliver its third and final rate cut of the year in December, though weakness in the tech sector restrained gains on the Nasdaq.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.43% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.91% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.67% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold remained steady Tuesday after softer-than-anticipated U.S. retail sales data strengthened bets on a December Fed rate cut.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 1.1% higher at $4,140 per ounce.
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday after Ukraine suggested that a vigorous U.S. diplomatic effort to end the war with Russia might be making progress.
Brent crude futures fell 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 89 cents, or 1.5%, to $57.95 a barrel. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since October 22 during intraday trading.
