Market Roundup
• GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec) -23.2, -23.6 forecast,-24.1 previous
•Italian Consumer Confidence (Nov) 95.0 forecast, 97.6 previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Oct) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (Oct) 16,990.4B previous
•EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Oct) 2.9%
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Oct) 2.8% forecast, 2.6% previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Nov) 97.0 forecast, 96.8 previous
•EU Business Climate (Nov) -0.66 forecast, -0.47 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Nov) -14.2 forecast, -14.2 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Nov) 23.1 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Nov) 9.9 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Nov) 5.7 forecast, 4.2 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Nov) -9.3 forecast, -8.5 previous
•EU Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 3.44% forecast , 3.46% previous
•EU Italian 5-Year BTP Auction 2.74% forecast, 2.75% previous
•EU Belgium CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.40% forecast,1.99% previous
•EU Belgium CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.56% forecast, 0.36% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Sep) 3.01% previous
• 13:30 Canada Current Account (Q3) -15.1B forecast, -21.2B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• 14:00 ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as invetors digested minutes of the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. European Central Bank policymakers were in no hurry to cut rates when they met last month as uncertainty remained high and some even thought that no more easing would be needed, the accounts of the October 29-30 meeting showed on Thursday.The ECB will release its initial 2028 projections on December 18, but some played down these numbers, arguing that the information content of more distant horizons had more limited value. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 99.65, having retreated from a six-month high hit a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16818(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Thursday a day after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a big tax-raising budget.Reeves on Wednesday delivered a highly anticipated budget that raised taxes and doubled her fiscal margin to meet Britain’s fiscal targets, exceeding market expectations, even as welfare spending rises.Big investors broadly welcomed, opens new tab the tax-raising budget that gives Reeves more leeway to meet her fiscal targets, but they warned it may not be enough if growth falters because tax hikes are due to kick in later. The pound was down 0.15% at $1.3219, after hitting a new one-month high earlier in the session at $1.3269. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar continued to strengthen on Thursday as markets grew increasingly confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s easing cycle has come to an end. Consumer inflation rose for a fourth straight month in October, forcing investors to scale back expectations of further rate cuts and begin factoring in the possibility of a hike. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed monthly CPI climbed 3.8% year-on-year, the highest in 10 months and above the 3.6% median forecast. Adding to the upbeat outlook, business investment surged 6.4% in the third quarter, led by robust demand for data centres and logistics, pointing to upside risks for economic growth. Swap markets now price in just a 15% chance of another RBA cut next year, while assigning a 30% probability to a hike by late 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday as the yen strengthened, with investors remaining alert for possible market intervention following repeated warnings from Japanese authorities. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday played down fears of a British-style “Truss moment,” insisting that her expansionary fiscal agenda would not erode market confidence. The yen has weakened steadily since early October amid concerns over government spending plans and lingering uncertainty over the timing of policy normalization by the Bank of Japan. Analysts now suggest the central bank could signal a rate hike as early as next month, potentially adopting a more consistent tightening path to bolster the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.83(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.63 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.08 (SMA 20)
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index was set to snap a three-session streak of declines on Wednesday as technology stocks rebounded, while safe-haven bids took a backseat.
At (GMT 13:35),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.17 % percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.38 %percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.10 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, easing from a near two-week high hit in the previous session, while investors assessed the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut in December.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,156.89 per ounce, as of 1216 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for December delivery slipped 0.2% to $4,154.40 per ounce.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors balanced hopes for an end to the Ukraine war against the effects of Western sanctions on Russian supply, with thin trading expected due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Brent crude futures rose 9 cents or 0.1% to stand at $63.22 a barrel as of 1102 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 19 cents or 0.3% to $58.84 a barrel.
