Market Roundup
•German Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Oct): -1.4%, -1.6% forecast, -1.0% previous.
•German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): -0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•French CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•French CPI (YoY) (Nov): 0.9%, 1.0% forecast, 0.9% previous.
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•French GDP (YoY) (Q3): 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•French HICP (MoM) (Nov): -0.2%, forecast not available, 0.1% previous.
•French HICP (YoY) (Nov): 0.8%, 0.1% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3): 0.0%, -0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•French PPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.0%, -0.1% previous.
•French PPI (YoY) (Oct): -0.8%, 0.1% previous.
•Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q3): -0.5%, -0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q3): 0.5%, 1.3% previous.
•German Unemployment Change (Nov): 1K, 4K forecast, -2K previous.
•German Unemployment Rate (Nov): 6.3%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous.
•German Unemployment (Nov): 2.973M, 2.973M previous.
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Nov): 2.885M, 2.910M previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q3): 0.00% previous.
•13:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep): 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous.
•13:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q3): -0.4% previous.
•13:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.21% previous.
•13:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3):-1.6% previous.
•13:30 Chicago PMI (Dec): 43.8 previous.
•13:30 Canada Budget Balance (Sep): -3.28B previous.
•13:30 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Sep): -11.07B previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases (GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as investors digested inflation data from Germany and awaited fresh catalysts. Preliminary data from the federal statistics office showed German inflation rose more than expected to 2.6% year-on-year in November, above forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters for a 2.4% reading, following October’s 2.3%. Meanwhile, minutes from the European Central Bank’s latest meeting released on Thursday showed policymakers were in no rush to cut interest rates. On the geopolitical front, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukrainian and United States delegations will meet this week to finalise a framework discussed in Geneva aimed at ending the war with Russia and securing guarantees for Kyiv. The euro was last down 0.3% at $1.1558 on the dollar, but still up around 0.5% for the week and set for its biggest weekly gain since July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16818(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Friday a as trade thinned ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves fought back on Thursday against criticism of the government's spending plans, which will fund extra welfare spending by raising the country's tax burden to a post-World War Two high. The government said it planned to raise taxes by 26 billion pounds ($34 billion). Trading volumes were lighter with U.S. markets resuming for a shorter trading session following Thursday's closure due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Sterling fell 0.2% at $1.3206 on the day, though it was heading for its best weekly performance since early August.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Friday as investors weighed growing market bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate-easing cycle is nearing its end. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading has effectively sealed the case that the RBA’s current easing phase is over after three rate cuts, with some economists now predicting the next move could be a hike rather than another cut. Data released on Friday showed Australia’s private credit rose 0.7% in October from the previous month, picking up from September’s 0.6%, suggesting financial conditions may not be as restrictive as previously thought. Rates markets imply little chance of another RBA rate cut next year, while showing a divided outlook on a possible hike toward the end of 2026. Swaps currently price in just a 15% probability of another cut in 2026, while assigning a 30% chance of a rate hike by late 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped slightly against the yen on Friday as markets reassessed the likelihood of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Expectations of a BOJ move are lending support to the yen, though concerns over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansive fiscal stance are capping gains. Data showed Tokyo’s core inflation stayed well above the central bank’s 2% target in November, driven by ongoing food price pass-throughs, strengthening the case for a near-term rate hike. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from October and close to the 2.7% median forecast. Separate October data showed gains in retail sales and factory output, while unemployment held at 2.6%, suggesting the world’s fourth-largest economy is so far absorbing the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.83(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.63 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.08 (SMA 20)
Equities Recap
European shares inched lower on Friday but remained on track for a fifth straight month of gains, as rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and signs of progress toward a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire helped lift investor sentiment this week.
At (GMT 13:35),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.19 % percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 %percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.22 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday to a two-week high and were on track for a fourth straight monthly rise on optimism over a possible U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,174.15 per ounce by 1140 GMT, its highest since November 14, and was set for a 2.7% weekly gain. Bullion is set to register a 3.9% rise this month.
Brent crude oil futures were largely unchanged on Friday while drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical risks elevated, while traders kept one eye on the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday for clues about potential output changes.
Front-month Brent crude futures for January , which expire on Friday, were down 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $63.20 a barrel at 1148 GMT. The more active February contract changed hands at $62.80, down 7 cents.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude froze at $59.08 a barrel, up 43 cents, or 0.73%. There was no settlement on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
