Market Roundup
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov): -32K, 5K forecast, 47K previous
• Canada Reserve Assets Total (Nov): 127.8B , 128.8B previous
• US Export Price Index (YoY) (Sep): 3.8%, 3.2% previous
• US Export Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Import Price Index (YoY) (Sep): 0.3% , -0.1% previous
• Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3): 0.9%, 0.4% forecast, -1.0% previous
• US Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep): 75.9%, 76.9% forecast, 75.9% previous
• US Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
• US Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): 1.62% , 0.90% previous
• US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• Canada Services PMI (Nov): 44.3 , 50.5 previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov): 54.2, 54.8 forecast, 54.6 previous
• US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov): 54.1, 55.0 forecast, 54.8 previous
• US All Car Sales (Sep): 2.65M, , 2.61M previous
• US All Truck Sales (Sep): 13.63M, , 13.40M previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Nov): 54.5 , 54.3 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Nov): 48.9, , 48.2 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Nov): 52.9, 56.2 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 52.6, 52.0 forecast, 52.4 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Nov): 65.4, 68.0 forecast, 70.0 previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories: 0.574M, -1.900M forecast, 2.774M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Exports (MoM) (Oct) 7.9% previous
•00:30 Australia Imports (MoM) (Oct) 1.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Trade Balance (Oct) 4.420B forecast,3.938B previous
•03:35 Japan 30-Year JGB Auction 3.166% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro advanced on Wednesday as euro was boosted by data showing an expansion in euro zone business activity. Business activity in the euro zone expanded at its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years in November as a robust service sector more than offset manufacturing weakness, a survey showed on Wednesday.HCOB's Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 52.8 in November from 52.5 in October, marking its sixth consecutive monthly increase. The euro was last up 0.43% at $1.1673 and reached $1.1677, the highest since October 17. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1672(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1700(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1572(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hit a 5-week high against the dollar on Wednesday after the ADP employment report showed that U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly declined in November. Private employment decreased by 32,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 10,000 jobs.The U.S. currency has weakened in recent days on speculation that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett will take over as Federal Reserve Chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May and push for more rate cuts. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 89% odds of a rate cut at next week's Fed meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.Sterling hit a 5-week high against the dollar at $1.3289, and was last up 0.54% at $1.3286. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3384(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3537(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3231(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3180(SMA20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as oil prices rose and domestic data showed productivity rebounding in the third quarter.Canadian labor productivity rose by 0.9% last quarter after declining 1% in the second quarter, helped by a sharp recovery in business output. It marked the sixth quarterly increase in eight quarters.Canada's jobs report for November, due on Friday, could offer additional clues on the state of the domestic economy. Economists have forecast that Canada's economy shed 5,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate edged up to 7% from 6.9% in October. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3945 per U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.3939 to 1.3975. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4000 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4025(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3941(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3912 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower against yen on Wednesday after weak economic data solidified expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 jobs in November, Wednesday's ADP employment report showed, missing economists' expectations for a 10,000-job increase.CME's FedWatch tool now shows an 89% chance that the U.S. central bank will cut rates next week, while major brokerages also forecast an interest rate cut at the December 9-10 policy meeting.Markets are still awaiting the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.05(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.71 (Dec 1st low)
Equities Recap
European shares closed mostly flat on Wednesday, with tech gains offsetting steep losses in financials, while Inditex jumped to a near one-year high on a strong start to winter sales..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.16 percent.
U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, boosted by economic data that kept bets on a Fed rate cut next week elevated, though gains were capped by a drop in Microsoft shares.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.86% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.30% percent, Nasdaq settled upby 0.17% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Wednesday, buoyed by weak private payrolls data that reinforced expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut next week, while silver hit a fresh record high.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,202.06 an ounce by 2:03 p.m. ET (1903 GMT), after hitting a session high of $4,241.29 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 0.3% higher at $4,232.50.
Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday after U.S.-Russia talks on ending the Ukraine war failed to yield a deal that could ease sanctions on Moscow’s oil sector, though gains were limited by oversupply concerns.
Brent crude closed 22 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $62.67, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $58.95. Both contracts fell more than 1% in the previous session.
