Market Roundup
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct): 1.2%, 2.5% forecast, 1.7% previous.
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Oct): 17.43B, 15.20B forecast, 19.89B previous.
•UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Oct): 20.825B, -10.782B previous.
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): -1.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct): 0.2%, 1.5% forecast, 1.0% previous.
•HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 47.8, 49.0 forecast, 48.8 previous.
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Nov): 49.9, 48.1 forecast, 47.7 previous.
•HCOB France Services PMI (Nov): 50.8, 48.4 forecast, 48.0 previous.
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Nov): 52.1, 53.7 forecast, 53.9 previous.
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 48.4, 49.8 forecast, 49.6 previous.
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Nov): 52.7, 54.0 forecast, 54.6 previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 49.7, 50.1 forecast, 50.0 previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov): 52.4, 52.5 forecast, 52.5 previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov): 53.1, 52.8 forecast, 53.0 previous.
•S&P Global UK Composite PMI (Nov): 50.5, 51.8 forecast, 52.2 previous.
•S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 50.2, 49.3 forecast, 49.7 previous.
•S&P Global UK Services PMI (Nov): 50.5, 51.9 forecast, 52.3 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% previous.
•13:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•13:30 New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•13:30 Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.7% forecast 1.0% previous
•14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep): 77.3% forecast, 77.4% previous .
•14:15 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous.
•14:15 Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): 0.87% previous.
•14:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 52.0 forecast, 52.5 previous..
•14:45 S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov): 54.5 forecast, 54.6 previous.
•14:45 S&P Global Services PMI (Nov): 54.6 forecast, 54.8 previous.
•15:00 US Housing Starts (Sep): 1.320M forecast, 1.307M previous.
•15:00 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep): -8.5% previous.
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov): 4.7% forecast, 4.6% previous.
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov): 3.6% forecast, 3.9% previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov): 49.0 forecast, 50.3 previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov): 50.3 forecast, 53.6 previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Nov): 52.3 forecast, 58.6 previous.
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug): -0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releass(GMT)
• Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
• Fed Fed Collins Speaks
• Fed Fed Logan Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday as investors evaluated fresh Eurozone business activity data. A private survey showed that business activity in the bloc continued to grow this month, supported by the fastest expansion in the services sector in one and a half years, even as weak demand pushed manufacturing back into contraction.Despite elevated global uncertainty throughout the year, the 20-nation Eurozone has demonstrated notable economic resilience. Improving business confidence indicates that this momentum is likely to persist.The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, eased slightly to 52.4 in November from a more-than two-year high of 52.5 in October just below the Reuters poll forecast of 52.5. Still, it marked the index’s 11th straight month above the 50.0 threshold that signals expansion.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed on Friday as investors awaited Britain's upcoming budget, with data showing the economy struggled before next week's major test for the currency and bond market.Business growth almost ground to a halt this month, retail sales tumbled in October, and a closely watched gauge of household sentiment fell.The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index composite flash measure a preliminary reading for the services and manufacturing sectors - dropped to 50.5 in November from 52.2 in October, barely above the 50 no-change mark. Retail sales volumes fell by 1.1% in October compared with a month before, their first month-on-month fall since May, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2974(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar inched higher on Friday as investors assessed Australia’s latest manufacturing PMI data. The country’s Flash Composite PMI rose to 52.6 in November from 52.1 in October, marking the fourteenth straight month of expansion and signalling stronger overall growth.The Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.6 from 49.7, while the Services PMI improved to 52.7, supported by renewed goods orders and stronger services new business. This helped lift overall new export business slightly, even as goods exports declined.Looking ahead, Australia’s October CPI is due on November 26, followed by Q3 Capital Expenditure data on November 27. The Aussie bounced 0.2% $0.6450, after sliding 0.6% overnight to hit a three-month low of $0.6434. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen on Friday as the Japanese currency strengthened following remarks from the Finance Minister on potential market intervention. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama cautioned that Japan may step into the currency market to counter excessive volatility and speculative pressure on the yen.The comments represent a stronger warning from policymakers, who until Thursday had only voiced concern over rapid, one-sided yen movements and stated they were monitoring conditions with a high sense of urgency.Japanese authorities continue to grapple with the persistent weakness of the yen, which has pushed up import costs and increased the burden of living expenses for households. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.56(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday and were on track for weekly losses as concerns over stretched tech valuations and a more hawkish Federal Reserve kept investors cautious.
At (GMT 12:08),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Friday and were set for a weekly decline after a robust U.S. jobs report dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, weighing on the non-yielding metal.
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,039.79 per ounce by 1213 GMT. Bullion has dipped 0.9% this week.
Oil prices fell on Friday, extending declines for a third session as the United States pushed for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could swell global supply while uncertainty over interest rates curbed investors' risk appetite.
Brent crude futures dropped by 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $62.98 a barrel by 1300 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.9%, or 50 cents, at $58.50.
