Market Roundup
•Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%,-0.5% forecast,0.8% previous
•Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Oct) -0.4%, 0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.7% , -0.7% forecast,1.0% previous
•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 51.9, 52.0 forecast, 52.5 previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov): 54.8, 54.5 forecast, 54.6 previous
• US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov): 55.0, 54.6 forecast, 54.8 previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov): 4.5%, 4.7% forecast, 4.6% previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov): 3.4%, 3.6% forecast, 3.9% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov): 51.0, 49.0 forecast, 50.3 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov): 51.0, 50.3 forecast, 53.6 previous
• US Michigan Current Conditions (Nov): 51.1, 52.3 forecast, 58.6 previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped against the dollar on Friday as investors digested fresh U.S. economic data and rising expectations of a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. S&P Global’s preliminary U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed continued solid economic momentum in November, with the Composite PMI edging up to 54.8 from 54.6, a four-month high. The Services PMI rose to 55.0 from 54.8, beating expectations, while the Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.9 from 52.5, slightly below the 52.0 forecast but still signaling expansion.Meanwhile, Thursday’s delayed U.S. nonfarm payroll report presented a mixed picture of the labor market, leaving Fed rate cut expectations largely unchanged as policymakers navigate economic uncertainty following the U.S. government shutdown.The euro fell 0.16% to $1.1511 and was on track for a 1% weekly decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1597 (Nov 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1472(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1450(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Friday as traders positioned ahead of the much-anticipated UK budget, a key event expected to influence near-term pound direction.Investors are closely watching Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who faces pressure to balance fiscal discipline with economic growth as she prepares to unveil her first budget next week. British finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to need to raise tens of billions of pounds to stay on track to meet her self-imposed fiscal targets.Media reports last week that she would not raise income tax roiled British assets. Just days before she had appeared to prime the market that tax hikes were coming. On the data front ,UK retail sales volumes fell by 1.1% in October compared with a month before, their first month-on-month fall since May, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3157(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3217(Nov 13th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Friday as oil prices declined and domestic retail sales showed a sharp reversal from the previous month’s gains.Statistics Canada reported that retail sales fell 0.7% in September to C$69.81 billion ($49.47 billion), following a 1% increase in August. The drop reflected weaker consumer spending on cars, automotive parts, building materials, and other goods.Meanwhile, oil prices, a key export for Canada, fell 1.9% to $57.88 a barrel. The decline came amid U.S. efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which could increase global oil supplies and weigh on prices.The loonie was trading at 1.4090 per U.S. dollar. For the week, the loonie was on track to decline 0.5%, which would be its largest weekly decline in eight weeks.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4132(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4162(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4051(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4033(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Friday as the yen regained some ground amid rising expectations of possible Japanese intervention. The yen popped higher after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said intervention was a possibility to deal with excessively volatile and speculative moves, leaving traders on alert for signs of yen buying from Tokyo.Japan’s efforts to counter the yen’s decline appear less effective this time, partly due to new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s appointment of advisors who favour aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus. While Tokyo officials have continued their verbal warnings against rapid depreciation in line with previous administrations their messaging is increasingly being challenged by voices arguing that a weaker yen can be advantageous . Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares defensive on Friday as worries over inflated tech valuations resurfaced. Defence stocks also declined amid signs of potential progress toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.80 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.02 percent.
Wall Street stocks surged on Friday, with gains fueled by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, offsetting worries over high tech sector valuations.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.08 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.98 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.88 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell roughly 1% on Friday, settling at one-month lows, as U.S. efforts for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised expectations of increased global supply.
Brent futures fell 82 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $62.56 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 94 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $58.06.
Gold prices steadied on Friday after dropping more than 1% earlier in the session, as traders increased wagers on a potential U.S. interest rate cut in December following dovish comments from the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was steady at $4,086.57 per ounce, as of 01:48 p.m. ET (18:48 GMT), after falling more than 1% earlier in the session. Bullion is set for a weekly gain of 0.1% so far.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.5% higher at $4,079.5 per ounce.
