Market Roundup
•Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.4%, 0.7%forecast,0.7% previous
•Australia GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2.1% 2.2% forecast,2.0% previous
•Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q3) 3.0%, -0.7% previous
•Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q3) 0.8%, -0.5% previous
•Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q3) 0.6%, 0.9% previous
•Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Nov) 52.00, 52.00 forecast,51.50 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Nov) 53.2,53.1 forecast,53.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 Swiss CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.1% forecast,-0.3% previous
• 07:00 Swiss CPI (YoY) (Nov) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•08:15 HCOB Spain Services PMI (Nov) 56.3 forecast,56.6 previous
•08:45 HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Nov) 53.2 forecast,53.1 previous
•08:45 HCOB Italy Services PMI (Nov) 53.9 forecast,54.0 previous
•08:50 HCOB France Composite PMI (Nov) 49.9 forecast,47.7 previous
•08:50 HCOB France Services PMI (Nov) 50.8 forecast,48.0 previous
•08:55 HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Nov) 52.1 forecast,53.9 previous
•08:55 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Nov) 52.7 forecast,54.6 previous
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov) 52.4 forecast,52.5 previous
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov) 53.1 forecast,53.0 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov) 50.5 forecast,52.2 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) 50.5 forecast,52.3 previous
•10:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Oct) -0.4% forecast,-0.2% previous
•10:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro advanced on Wednesday as the dollar slipped, while markets awaited key manufacturing data from Europe. The single currency is up over 12% this year, on pace for its biggest annual gain since 2017, benefiting from a weak dollar due to tariff uncertainties earlier in the year and lately rising odds of U.S. rate cuts.The European Central Bank is due to meet in two weeks and is broadly expected to stand pat on rates, with markets pricing in only a one-in-four chance of any easing next year.The ECB cut rates by a combined 2 percentage points in the year to June but has been on the sidelines ever since. That should leave the euro supported especially with traders pricing in 90 basis points of U.S. rate cuts before the end of 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1652(Dec 1st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1668(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1572(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling advanced on Wednesday as the greenback softened as markets continued to price in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar came under further pressure after Donald Trump hinted at a potential new Fed chair while introducing economic adviser Kevin Hassett at the White House. Hassett is widely viewed as a dovish successor to Jerome Powell, a nomination that could weigh further on the currency. Data earlier this week reinforced bets on a December rate cut, with manufacturing contracting for a ninth straight month in November. Markets are pricing in an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis-point interest rate cut at the Fed's meeting next week, according to CME's FedWatch tool.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose to one month high on Wednesday after Australian data pointed to solid economic growth in the third quarter.Australia's government spending jumped in the third quarter to add to a long-awaited rebound in business investment, setting the stage for a solid economic performance.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed government spending added 0.4 percentage points to gross domestic product (GDP) in the September quarter, after barely contributing in the previous quarter.The central bank policy board meets next week and is considered certain to hold rates at 3.60%, and perhaps turn more hawkish on the outlook for further easing.RBA Governor Michele Bullock appears before lawmakers on Wednesday and is certain to be questioned on inflation, though she is usually careful not to pre-empt the board on policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6560(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6583 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6504(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6468(Nov 26th low)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Wednesday as the yen strengthened on growing bets of an interest rate hike this month by BOJ.Markets were taken by surprise on Monday when Kazuo Ueda said the bank was reviewing the “pros and cons” of lifting interest rates in December.Japan’s finance minister said there is no disconnect between the government and the central bank’s economic assessment, after the governor voiced confidence and hinted at raising rates.Katayama said she expects the BOJ to continue working closely with the government and conduct monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target, accompanied by wage increases.Traders have priced in an increasing probability of a December hike from the Bank of Japan, with last month’s slide in the yen to 10-month lows strengthening the case for tightening . Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.14 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.71 (Dec 1st low)
Equities Recap
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose on Wednesday as technology shares followed overnight gains on Wall Street, supported by growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut this month.
China’s A50 dipped 0.70%,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.13%,Hang Seng was down 1.31%
Commodities Recap
Gold bounced back on Wednesday as traders held onto expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a slew of U.S. data this week likely to influence policy, while silver surged to a record high.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,222.22 per ounce, as of 0506 GMT, after falling more than 1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.8% at $4,252.90 per ounce.
Oil prices fell for a second straight session on Wednesday as traders awaited the results of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which could increase supply, while rising inventories raised concerns of a potential surplus.
