Russian consumer turmoil continues

Oct 21, 2015 05:30 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The dip in Russias fixed investments and industrial production was less (-5.6% y/y and -3.7% y/y, respectively) than expected while the demand side continues to disappoint on the back of the purchase power crash. As...

No guarantee of reforms in Italy

Oct 21, 2015 05:28 am UTC| Commentary

In Italy, the outcome of last weeks Senate vote is encouraging and should pave the way for additional economic reforms. But, as observed in other euro area member states with stable parliamentary majorities, putting in...

BCB's rate cut unlikely in H1 16

Oct 21, 2015 05:28 am UTC| Commentary

In fact, one cannot rule out further monetary tightening in this cycle given the pressure on the BRL. Although that is not the baseline scenario. In any case, such a rate hike would be seen as an effort to ensure...

Brazil's fiscal footing uncertainty complicates matters further

Oct 21, 2015 05:25 am UTC| Commentary

Uncertainty over the sustainability of Brazils fiscal footing and the future of fiscal policy is complicating matters further. The fiscal dominance theory has returned to the spotlight in Brazil following the 31st August...

Russia's local production likely supported by import substitution

Oct 21, 2015 05:24 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Russias manufacturing production data shows that certain sectors have started benefiting from import substitutions as western sanctions and Russias counter measures have distorted the market. Foods production expanded...

Drop in Italy's policy uncertainty index to translate into increase in GDP growth

Oct 21, 2015 05:23 am UTC| Commentary

The high degree of policy-related uncertainty witnessed in Italy since the 2008 crisis can be linked to the lack of stable institutions and weak business environment. A reduction is expected in the probability of the...

Reform process on in Italy

Oct 21, 2015 05:21 am UTC| Commentary

On 4 May, a majority in the Chamber of Deputies approved a government bill to implement a new electoral system in Italy. The important point is that, with the introduction of a new majority premium, any party winning...