BCB's rate cut unlikely in H1 16

In fact, one cannot rule out further monetary tightening in this cycle given the pressure on the BRL. Although that is not the baseline scenario. 

"In any case, such a rate hike would be seen as an effort to ensure financial stability and not primarily due to further inflationary pressure. We now expect a rate cut of only 50bp in 2016, vs a 125bp rate cut previously. The consensus view of a rate cut of about 175bp in 2016 is probably too optimistic", says Societe Generale.