RBI to cut final 25bp in February with inflation in 5-6% range; rains key
Dec 09, 2015 00:32 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan is expected to cut 25bp in February. Inflation should peak at 5.5-6% by January 2016 to meet the RBIs under-6% target. The RBI will be on a long pause thereafter. RBIs around 5% March 2017...
China's structural and cyclical slowdown; reforms remain key to maintain growth
Dec 09, 2015 00:18 am UTC| Commentary Economy
The gradual slowdown over the last four years has been due to the potential growth rate grinding lower and cyclical pressure on the economy. That implies there is room to support potential growth with structural reforms...
China's path of growth slowdown as rebalancing continues
Dec 08, 2015 23:43 pm UTC| Commentary Economy
Investment growth is expected to decelerate further in the next two years, but likely at a slower pace than before. Meanwhile, consumption growth will likely stabilize at lower levels, on the back of relatively firm growth...
EMs are facing a challenging global environment today
Dec 08, 2015 23:27 pm UTC| Commentary Economy
Post-crisis global growth is still elusive after eight years since the global financial crisis broke out, with developed markets on course for recovery at a moderate pace and many emerging markets struggling to regain...
Japan's inflation rate should improve to around 1.5% from 2H 2016
Dec 08, 2015 23:13 pm UTC| Commentary
As of September 2015, the core CPI (all items excluding fresh food) declined 0.1% yoy, but that number was +1.2% when excluding energy, the highest it has been since the start of QQE, and the underlying rate of inflation...
A delicate political equilibrium will persist in Italy
Dec 08, 2015 23:04 pm UTC| Commentary Politics
The year ahead will likely be characterized by the same delicate political equilibrium as in 2015. Political risks are multiple, but still see the balance of forces tilted on Prime Minister Matteo Renzis side. This would...
Germany’s government under scrutiny
Dec 08, 2015 22:50 pm UTC| Commentary Politics
Germanys Willkommenskultur and Chancellor Angela Merkels generous stance on the refugee movement, so prominent during the summer, are coming under pressure as the number of asylum seekers continues to rise. Between January...
Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility
Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget
Why Germany ditched nuclear before coal – and why it won’t go back
Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board
Sudan: civil war stretches into a second year with no end in sight