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FxWirePro: Unwind and stay long in Scandis on central bank policies

Jan 09, 2018 10:41 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Long BRLNOK trades have to be unwound, this LatAm/Scandi trade was opened to fetch carry in a lower beta approach. This theme still looks to be attractive, trade particularly now seems vulnerable to rising oil prices as...

FxWirePro: How to approach 2018, a depressed vols scenario? ATMF vs ATMS call spreads in two EM currency crosses

Jan 09, 2018 08:59 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The global picture on the volatility front hasnt really changed in recent months. Implied and realized volatility is still hovering in their low or very low percentiles. Long carry through the 2018 year ahead outlook...

FxWirePro: Cable upside potential more likely in Q1 but unwise to disregard bearish risk – Options straps for smart hedging

Jan 09, 2018 07:06 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Even with sterling making new lows in trade-weighted terms (nominal and real), GBPUSD meandering in a 1.30-1.35 range is foreseen for most H1 of 2018. However, a slump to GBPUSD 1.25 would require, above all else, a...

FxWirePro: Spot out likely and unlikely drivers of Sterling’s tantrum in 2018 and deploy 3-way straddles to keep a check on seesaw GBP/AUD oscillation

Jan 08, 2018 13:03 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We expect three years of real GDP growth below 1% in 2018-2020, averaging 0.8% per annum, about a quarter of the worlds average growth rate. On a positive note, that ought to be enough to shrink the current account deficit...

FxWirePro: 2017 a year of Brexit speculations, NAFTA in 2018 to offer carry-relative value structures

Jan 08, 2018 09:49 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

As we have done with the Brexit-driven long GBP vol theme the last year, NAFTA or BoC-related CAD-volatility seems to be the best isolated via easy-to-carry relative value structures in 2018. CAD-denominated...

FxWirePro: LATAM FX hedging intricacies with pinch of salt

Jan 08, 2018 08:52 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Fundamentals currently seem uber-supportive for EMFX space. However, as this opinion has become the consensus, it raises red flags. A simple, and perhaps naive, parallel to previous cycles suggests that 2018 may resemble...

FxWirePro: What leads and what lags TRY in Q1’2018? OTC calls to hedge USD/TRY FX risks

Jan 08, 2018 07:32 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In Turkey, the CBRT disappointed consensus and market expectations of 100bp of hikes to the late liquidity window (to 13.25%) by hiking only 50bp to 12.75%. The 50bps rate hike is not sufficed to stabilize the currency, as...

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Economy

Goldman Sachs, ANZ Cut Oil Forecasts Amid U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Hopes

Brent crude oil prices have tumbled more than 11% this week after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, raising hopes that the Strait of Hormuz one of the worlds most critical oil shipping lanes ...

Bank of Japan Governor Signals Accommodative Stance Amid Negative Real Rates

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed on Thursday that Japans real interest rates remain firmly in negative territory, signaling that the countrys financial conditions continue to support economic growth. His...

Japan Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply Amid Rising Fuel Costs and Middle East Tensions

Japans consumer confidence took a significant hit in March, declining for the first time in three months as escalating fuel costs linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict continued to weigh heavily on the countrys...

China Set to Exit Deflation Cycle in Early 2026, ANZ Analysts Say

China may be closer to ending its prolonged deflationary period than financial markets currently anticipate, according to a recent note from ANZ analysts. The bank projects that three key price indicators the producer...

Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Ceasefire Doubts Weigh on Markets

Asian currencies showed little movement on Thursday following strong gains in the prior session, as investor caution mounted over the stability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal amid escalating Middle East tensions. The U.S....

Politics

Trump Warns Iran: No Deal Means Military Action as U.S. Forces Hold Position

President Donald Trump escalated tensions with Iran on Wednesday, declaring that all U.S. military assets including ships, aircraft, and personnel would remain stationed in the region until a formal agreement with Tehran...

U.S. Pushes for Crypto Regulation to Keep Digital Asset Growth at Home

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is calling on Congress to pass landmark federal cryptocurrency legislation, warning that regulatory uncertainty is pushing blockchain innovation and investment out of the United States. In...

North Korea Tests Advanced Cluster Bombs, Electromagnetic Weapons in Latest Military Display

North Korea has conducted a series of weapons tests this week, showcasing cutting-edge military technology including cluster-bomb warheads, electromagnetic weapons, and carbon-fibre bombs, according to state media outlet...

Trump Pardon Clears Juan Orlando Hernández as U.S. Court Dismisses Drug Conviction Appeal

A U.S. federal appeals court has dismissed the case against former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, vacating his prior conviction following a presidential pardon granted by Donald Trump in December. The...

Taiwan Defense Budget: U.S. Senator Urges Legislature to Pass Spending Plan

Republican Senator Jim Banks visited Taipei and delivered a direct message to Taiwans President Lai Ching-te: the islands parliament must stop stalling and approve a proposed special defense budget. Banks, a member of the...

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

Bank of America Identifies Top Asia-Pacific Semiconductor Stocks Poised for AI-Driven Growth

Bank of America has spotlighted a select group of Asia-Pacific semiconductor companies well-positioned to ride the wave of surging artificial intelligence chip demand, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company...

China's AI Stocks Surge as Zhipu and MiniMax Hit Record Highs

Chinese artificial intelligence stocks continued their remarkable rally on Thursday, with Zhipu AI and MiniMax Group posting strong gains in Hong Kong trading as a wave of new model launches and product announcements...

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Posts Strong Q3 Earnings, Announces AI-Driven Job Cuts

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank delivered an impressive financial performance in its third quarter, reporting a 12.8% surge in cash earnings to A$137.9 million for the three months ending March 31. The result came in roughly 12%...

Alibaba Shares Slide as Jefferies Slashes Price Target Over AI Spending and Business Losses

Alibabas Hong Kong-listed shares (HK:9988) dropped 2.9% to HK$122.70 on Thursday, emerging as one of the heaviest drags on the Hang Seng Index, which closed 0.6% lower. The selloff came after investment bank Jefferies...

Anthropic Fights Pentagon Blacklisting in Dual Federal Court Battles

A federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., has refused to halt the Pentagons national security blacklisting of AI company Anthropic, delivering a temporary win for the Trump administration. The ruling comes as another...