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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

US Yen Intervention Unlikely to Deliver Lasting Recovery, Yardeni Says

U.S. efforts to strengthen the Japanese yen may offer only temporary relief as Japans fiscal policies, wide interest-rate gap with the United States, and preference for a weaker currency continue to pressure the yen,...

Iran-Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal as Shipping Tensions Persist

Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran says a bilateral deal alone will not be enough to fully reopen the critical global energy route. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas...

Trump Unveils $3 Billion U.S. Critical Minerals Push

President Donald Trump announced roughly $3 billion in U.S. government investments and financing for critical minerals, battery materials and mining projects, part of a broader effort to strengthen domestic production and...

Oil Prices Set for Steep Weekly Losses as Hormuz Deal Stalls

Oil prices fluctuated on Friday and remained on course for sharp weekly declines as uncertainty surrounding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive volatility across global energy markets....

Gold Prices Surge 7% as Dollar Falls, Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease

Gold prices rallied sharply on Friday, putting the precious metal on track for its strongest weekly performance since late January as a weaker U.S. dollar, lower oil prices and softer Federal Reserve rate hike expectations...

Politics

Germany Warns of Daily Hybrid Warfare Threats

Germany is facing foreign hybrid warfare operations on a daily basis, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has warned after authorities discovered an explosive-carrying drone at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Dobrindt said hostile...

ICE to Complete Nationwide Body Camera Rollout by End of August

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will equip all officers and agents working in the field with body-worn cameras by the end of August, accelerating a nationwide rollout that was initially expected to take...

Joe Biden’s Prostate Cancer Has Spread Further, Hunter Biden Says

Former U.S. President Joe Bidens prostate cancer has spread beyond his bones and is causing significant pain, according to his son, Hunter Biden, who discussed his fathers health in a BBC interview. Speaking to the BBCs...

Senate Majority Leader John Thune Moves to Advance Crypto Clarity Act

U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has taken a key step toward advancing the Clarity Act, a major cryptocurrency regulation bill that could establish the first comprehensive federal framework for the U.S. crypto...

Taiwan President Lai Oversees Coastal Strike Drills in Han Kuang War Games

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te observed coastal strike drills on Saturday as the island continued its annual Han Kuang military exercises, designed to strengthen Taiwans defence readiness against a potential Chinese attack....

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Nvidia Seen Beating Q2 Targets as Vera Rubin Cycle Begins

Nvidia (NVDA) could enter a multi-quarter growth cycle as shipments of its next-generation Vera Rubin AI chips begin, with BofA Global Research forecasting stronger-than-expected quarterly results and maintaining a bullish...

OpenAI Restricts Astra AI Over Cyberattack Risks

OpenAI has reportedly restricted parts of the development of its next-generation AI model, code-named Astra, after early evaluations indicated the system could potentially carry out sophisticated cyberattacks with limited...

Nvidia to Invest Up to $3 Billion in Blackstone-Backed Lancium

Nvidia is reportedly preparing to invest as much as $3 billion in Lancium, a Blackstone-backed power infrastructure developer involved in the Stargate artificial intelligence infrastructure initiative, as demand for...

Meta Ordered to Pay $567M Over Child Safety Violations in New Mexico

Meta Platforms Inc. has been ordered to pay $567 million into a fund designed to address harm to young people, in a major legal ruling involving child safety on Facebook and Instagram. Judge Bryan Biedscheid of New Mexicos...

Nintendo Shares Jump as Switch 2 Sales Boost Earnings

Nintendo shares surged nearly 5% on Friday after the Japanese gaming giant reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and upgraded its full-year financial outlook, supported by robust demand for the new Switch...