Market Roundup
• German Feb Retail Sales (YoY) -2.7%,-0.8%forecast,-1.4% previous
• German Feb Retail Sales (MoM) -1.9%, 0.4% forecast,-0.4% previous
•UK Current Account (Q4)-21.2B,-21.3B forecast,-17.2B previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4)-0.3%,-0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q4)-0.2%,-0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4)1.4%,1.5% forecast,-3.2% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4)2.8%,3.7% forecast,2.3% previous
•German Mar Unemployment Rate 5.9%,5.9% forecast,5.9% previous
•German Mar Unemployment n.s.a. 2.769M, 2.814M previous
•German Mar Unemployment 2.719M ,2.713M previous
•German Mar Unemployment Change 4K,10K forecast,11K previous
•Belgium Mar CPI (YoY) 3.18% ,3.20% previous
•Belgium Mar CPI (MoM) 0.55%,0.71% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q4)3.0% forecast,3.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Jan Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 3.77% previous
•12:30 GDP Sales (Q4) 3.5% forecast,3.6% previous
•12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q4)3.7% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)3.2% forecast,4.9% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q4) 1.8% forecast,2.6% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q4)2.10% forecast,2.00% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)1.6% forecast,3.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Jan GDP (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.0% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 212K forecast,210K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,807K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 211.25K previous
•13:45 US Mar Chicago PMI 45.9 forecast,44.0 previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% forecast,3.0% previous
•14:00 US Feb Pending Home Sales Index 74.3 previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan Consumer Sentiment 76.5 forecast,76.9 previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan Current Conditions 79.4 forecast,79.4 previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations 74.6 forecast,75.2 previous
•14:00 US Feb Pending Home Sales (MoM) 1.4% forecast,-4.9% previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% forecast,2.9% previous
•15:00 US Mar KC Fed Composite Index -4 previous
•15:00 US Mar KC Fed Manufacturing Index 3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Thursday as the greenback gained after a U.S. Federal Reserve policy maker said he wasn't in a hurry to cut rates, while traders braced for key economic data. Speaking during late U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said recent disappointing inflation data affirms the case for the U.S. central bank holding off on cutting its short-term interest rate target.Market expectations for the first rate cut to occur at the Fed's June meeting have eased somewhat. Current pricing has it at a 60% chance, compared to 67% around this time last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders now await U.S. core PCE inflation figures due on Friday, as well as an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0829(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0852 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0775(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0736(Feb 16th low).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Thursday after data confirmed the UK economy entered recession in the second half of last year and as the dollar put on a display of broad-based strength as the month and the quarter end. UK gross domestic product shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter and by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from preliminary estimates, the Office for National Statistics said.Markets had already factored in a mild recession late last year and the numbers did not trigger an outsized reaction in the pound, or have any impact on expectations for monetary policy. Sterling was last down 0.2%, but was still on course for a 0.2% gain this week against the dollar, ahead of key U.S. inflation data on Friday. The pound held steady against the euro , which traded at 85.63 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2664(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2741(March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2603 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2563(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors braced for much-anticipated inflation data from the world's largest economy the United States. All eyes will be on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge- the so-called core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, due on Friday. Any negative surprises could further blur the U.S. rate cuts picture. Also on the radar are the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims report due later in the day, followed by the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index report on Friday. The dollar rose 0.24% to 0.9059 francs, trading just shy of a four month high hit the day before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9066(March 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9118(Nov 2nd 2023 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8921(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Thursday as investors hesitated take position on the pair on fears of Japanese intervention. The dollar was steady at 151.42 per yen having traded just shy of the 152 mark at its highest since 1990 on Wednesday before Japan's top monetary officials suggested they were ready to intervene to prevent further declines. Japanese authorities held a meeting on Wednesday on the currency's weakness and ramped up their verbal warnings, putting the market on the lookout for any signs that words are being backed up with action.Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022, selling the dollar to buy yen, first in September and again in October as the yen slid towards a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.93 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher on Thursday, heading into the long Easter weekend, propped up by gains in JD Sports after reiterating its annual profit forecast, while the benchmark index eyed a second consecutive quarter in the green.
At (GMT 12:16 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices firmed on Thursday, following two consecutive sessions of decline, as investors saw a tighter supply outlook ahead, while the OPEC+ producer alliance was widely expected to stay the course on its current production cuts.
Brent crude futures for May were up 91 cents, or 1.1%, at $87 a barrel while the more actively traded June contract rose 75 cents, or 0.9%, to $86.16 at 1101 GMT. The May contract expires on Thursday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May delivery were up 89 cents, or 1.1%, to $82.24 a barrel.
Gold rose on Thursday, bound for its biggest monthly rise since November 2022 after a blistering rally fuelled by bets for U.S. interest rate cuts, strong safe-haven demand and central bank buying.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $2,212.47 per ounce, as of 1059 GMT, on track for a monthly gain of over 8%, and a second straight quarterly rise. U.S. gold futures edged 0.9% higher to $2,232.60.
