Market Roundup
• Australia Exports (MoM) (Oct) 3.4%, 7.6% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM) (Oct) 2.0%, 1.8% previous
• Australia Trade Balance (Oct) 4.385B,4.440B forecast,3.707B previous
•Japan 30-Year JGB Auction 3.427%, 3.166% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Nov) 2.9% previous
• 08:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Nov) 3.0% forecast,3.0% previous
•08:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 50.7 previous
•08:30 HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 39.8 previous
•08:30 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 44.0 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov) 44.5 forecast,44.1 previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.4% forecast,1.0% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower versus the dollar on Thursday, but the downside was capped ahead of the Eurozone’s October retail sales figures due later in the session. The European Central Bank has reaffirmed its data-driven stance, underscoring that policy decisions will depend on future economic and financial data. With a policy meeting due in two weeks, the ECB is expected to hold rates steady, while markets see just a one-in-four chance of easing next year. The currency has surged over 12% this year, marking its best annual performance since 2017, helped by a softer dollar earlier amid tariff concerns and increasing bets on U.S. rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1674(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1692(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as investors grew cautious ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, while awaiting fresh data for clearer signals on the interest rate outlook. U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November the steepest drop in over two and a half years according to the ADP employment report on Wednesday, though still-low layoffs suggest the weakness may not fully reflect labor market conditions. Attention now turns to the delayed September PCE inflation report, due for release on Friday. Markets now assign an 89% chance of a rate cut next week, according to CME's FedWatch tool, while major brokerages also expect easing at the December 9–10 meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3364(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3427(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3295(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3182(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as unexpectedly strong domestic spending data lent support to the currency. Australian households posted their sharpest spending increase in nearly two years in October, signaling economic heat that could tilt the next interest rate move toward a hike rather than a cut. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed household spending jumped 1.3% to A$78.4 billion ($51.77 billion), driven by year-end sales, following a 0.3% rise in September. A day earlier, figures showed the economy grew at its fastest annual pace in two years in the September quarter, powered by strong business, government, and consumer outlays. The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut rates three times this year to 3.6% and is widely expected to hold steady next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6619(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6629 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6557(Oct 2nd low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6553(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar inched higher against the yen on Thursday as concerns over possible market intervention by Japanese authorities faded slightly. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday said uncertainty persists over how far rates can be raised, given the difficulty of pinning down Japan’s neutral interest rate. The neutral rate, which guides monetary policy, is not directly observable and shifts with longer-term factors such as productivity. BOJ estimates place Japan’s nominal neutral rate between 1% and 2.5%. Earlier this week, Ueda said the central bank would assess the “pros and cons” of a rate hike at its next meeting, signaling a strong chance of a move to 0.75% later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.34 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian markets got off to a sluggish start on Thursday after disappointing data cemented expectations of a U.S. rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting.
China’s A50 was up 0.20%, South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.19%,Hang Seng was up 0.25%
Commodities Recap
Gold edged down on Thursday as traders locked in gains and adopted a cautious approach ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, keeping an eye on upcoming data for guidance on the central bank’s policy path.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,196.96 per ounce, as of 0446 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.2% at $4,225.90 per ounce.
Oil climbed on Thursday after Ukrainian strikes targeted Russian oil infrastructure, raising supply concerns, though stalled peace talks and weak fundamentals kept gains in check.
Brent crude rose 24 cents, or 0.38%, to $62.91 by 0349 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 29 cents, or 0.49%, to $59.24.
