Market Roundup
•Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.2%,2.2% forecast,2.2%previous
•Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.5%,2.3% previous
•German Dec Industrial Production (YoY) -3.13%,-4.87% previous
•UK Jan Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 2.5%, 1.7% previous
•UK Jan Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 1.3%,0.8% forecast,1.1% previous
•German Dec Industrial Production (MoM) -1.6%,-0.4% forecast,-0.7% previous
•French Dec Imports 57.0B,55.4B previous
•French Dec French Current Account -0.70B, -2.80B previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0%, -0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Dec Imports 64.17B previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Trade Balance 1.10B forecast, 1.57B previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Exports 65.74B previous
•13:30 US Dec Trade Balance -62.00B forecast, -63.20B previous
•13:30 US Dec Exports 253.70B previous
•13:30 US Dec Imports 316.90B previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.972M previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.115M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories 0.140M forecast, 1.156M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.700M forecast,1.234M previous
•16:00 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 4.2% forecast,4.2% previous
•20:00 US Dec Consumer Credit 14.90B forecast,23.75B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•19:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•16:30 US Fed Collins Speaks
•16:00 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Wednesday as traders focus shifted to statements from U.S. Federal Reserve officials throughout the week, seeking insights into the potential interest rate trajectory for the year ahead. The focus also is likely to shift later to next week's inflation report for further clues on the timing of rate cuts.Two Fed officials said on Tuesday if the U.S. economy performs as expected, it could open the door to rate cuts. But the fight against inflation is .Strong U.S. economic data and hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have dashed hopes for a rate cut in March and triggered traders to cut back bets of a May U.S. rate cut. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.077 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0803(( 38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0861 ( 50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0722(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0710(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling surged on Wednesday as data indicating growing home prices in Britain backed speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) would not lower interest rates anytime soon.British home prices grew 2.5% in the year to January, the highest annual growth rate in a year, according to data from mortgage provider Halifax, adding to early indications of recovery. n a sign that the BoE is in no rush to cut interest rates, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said she was now thinking about how long interest rates would need to stay at their current level, instead of whether they would need to rise further. Sterling rose 0.25% against the dollar to $1.2629, after sliding on Monday to an almost two-month low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2639(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2670(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2595(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2528(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Wednesday as traders focused on comments from US Federal Reserve members this week that might give fresh hints about the interest rate outlook this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continued to push back against the prospect of near-term rate cuts, in an interview aired on Sunday. Better than expected U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Fed policymakers have led investors and markets to roll back on rate cut predictions. Traders are currently pricing in a 21.5% chance of a rate cut in March, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows, compared with a 68.1% chance at the start of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8748(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8670(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8601(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as investors assessed Federal Reserve rate-cut bets. In an interview at the weekend, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could be "prudent" on the timing of rate cuts.The probability of a U.S. rate cut as early as May now stands at just 39%, when it was considered a done deal only a week ago. Fed Governors Adriana Kugler and Michelle Bowman, along with regional presidents Thomas Barkin and Susan Collins speak later on Wednesday. Futures imply around 122 basis points of easing for all of 2024, down from 145 basis points last week. The dollar rose 0.1% to 148.13 yen , just shy of its recent 10-week peak at 148.90. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.03(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.63(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.21 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Wednesday as the effect of easing government bond yields and gains in companies with upbeat earnings reports were offset by a slide in healthcare and energy stocks.
At (GMT 13:08 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were stuck in a relatively tight range on Wednesday as traders turned their attention to remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials through the week that may provide more clues on the interest-rate path this year.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,033.02 per ounce, as of 1030 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,049.00 per ounce.
Oil prices rose for the third consecutive day on Wednesday following news that U.S. oil inventories increased by a smaller margin than anticipated
Brent crude futures rose 56 cents to $79.15 a barrel as of 1159 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 59 cents to $73.90.
