Market Roundup
• Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Oct) -1.1%, 3.3% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.078%, 2.084% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.041%, 2.027% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.053%, 2.041% previous
•Belgium NBB Business Climate (Nov)-8.2,-8.7forecast,-9.1 previous
•US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Nov) -10.4, -5.0 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.745%, 3.795% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.670%, 3.710% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as dipped after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that available data showed the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank's December 9-10 policy meeting.His remarks followed those of New York Fed President John Williams on Friday who said that the U.S. central bank can still cut interest rates "in the near term" without putting its inflation goal at risk.German business morale unexpectedly fell in November, a survey showed on Monday, as companies lose hope on a recovery of the German economy following two years of contraction.The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 88.1 in November from 88.4 in October, below a consensus of 88.5 from a Reuters poll among analysts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1563(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1473(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1438(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling traded in narrow range against the U.S. dollar on Monday ahead of Britain’s highly anticipated budget announcement this week. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will unveil her budget on Wednesday, aiming to reassure investors that the government will remain fiscally prudent while honoring pre-election promises not to raise taxes on working households. Economic data showed slowing business growth and a drop in retail sales in October, while a key gauge of household sentiment also declined.Traders increasingly expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates next month, boosting market optimism for Sterling. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point easing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3125(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3139(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2974(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar steadied against the U.S. dollar on Monday as the currency struggled to benefit from improved risk appetite while investors awaited domestic GDP data later in the week.Analysts expect Canada’s economy to have grown at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q3, which would narrowly avoid a second consecutive quarterly contraction.Preliminary data showed Canadian factory sales fell 1.1% in October from September, primarily due to declines in the chemical and wood product subsectors.Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on Canada’s economy, though Prime Minister Mark Carney stated on Sunday that trade discussions with the United States will resume “when it’s appropriate.”.The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.4105 per U.S. dollar .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4128(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4148 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4086(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4039 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as investors remained on the lookout for signs of official buying from Tokyo to stem the slide in the Japanese currency. Volume was thinner than normal due to a holiday in Japan and a holiday-thinned week in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Japan’s currency has been sliding on a combination of looser fiscal policies and some of the lowest interest rates in the world. It found some support on Friday, bouncing from 10-month lows after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up verbal intervention warnings to stem the currency's decline. Traders see a risk of intervention somewhere between 158 and 162 yen per dollar, with Thanksgiving-thinned trade later in the week a possible window for authorities to step in. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.66(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European markets rise, fueled by technology shares and optimism over potential U.S. monetary easing and Ukraine talks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up at 0.64 percent, Germany's Dax closed down by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC closed down by 0.29 percent.
Wall Street stocks closed higher on Monday, extending Friday’s rally as rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut outweighed concerns over elevated tech valuations.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.44 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.55 percent, Nasdaq settled up by2.69 .
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed over 1% on Monday, bolstered by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month and ahead of upcoming U.S. economic data that could provide further insight into monetary policy.
Spot gold gained 1.2% at $4,111.86 per ounce, by 01:43 p.m. EST (1843 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,094.2 per ounce.
Oil climbs 1% as markets price in a potential December Fed rate cut and uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Brent futures rose 81 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $63.37 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 78 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $58.84.
