Market Roundup
• EU CPI (YoY) (Feb): 1.9%, 1.9% forecast, 1.7% previous.
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Feb): 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.2% previous.
• EU CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, -0.6% previous.
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, -0.8% previous.
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Feb): 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.1% previous.
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, -1.1% previous.
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, previous -0.6%.
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Feb): 1.8%, previous 1.6%.
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Feb): 100.71, 100.72 forecast, 100.05 previous.
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Jan): 11.390B, 13.060B previous
• US Core PPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.9%, 3.7% forecast, 3.5% previous
• US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.4% previous
• US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Feb): 3.5%, 3.4% previous
• US PPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Jan): 46.73B, 4.72B forecast, -5.84B previous
• US Core PPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan): 0.1% forecast, -0.7% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jan): 0.4% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jan): 0.5% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Jan): 0.4% previous
14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: -1.500M forecast, 3.824M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision: 2.25% forecast , 2.25% previous.
•13:30 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Wednesday as dollar firmed ahead of a slate of central bank policy meetings. The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan following a day later. They are all widely expected to maintain interest rates. Instead, traders will be looking for commentary about inflation and economic outlook amid war in the Middle East. Markets are on edge, trying to price in the economic damage from U.S. President Donald Trump's war with Iran and the policy reaction it could trigger. The dollar index, which measures the greenback relative to six major peers, firmed 0.27% to 99.83. The euro was down 0.23% at $1.1512Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1546(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1659 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1472(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1421(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Wednesday as dollar firmed investors turned their attention to U.S. Federal Reserve meeting to see how policymakers will balance growth and inflation risk amid conflict in the Middle East. After the Reserve Bank of Australia kicked off a busy week for global central banks with an interest rate hike, all eyes are now on the Fed's policy meeting later in the day. Attention will be on updated economic forecasts, especially the "dot plot", where the risk is that it might no longer project any rate cuts at all this year.The Fed is widely expected to keep its policy steady but the debate will very much centre on whether conflict with Iran is likely to disrupt economic growth, threaten more persistent inflation or create a confounding mix of economic slowing and rising prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3373(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3417(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3260(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3208(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Wednesday as dollar firmed ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which may offer clues on how policymakers are assessing growth and inflation risks amid the Middle East conflict.The Fed announces its decision later today, followed by the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan on Thursday. All are expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention on guidance around inflation and growth amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.Expectations for Fed easing have been pared back, with markets now pricing about 25 bps of cuts this year. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in more than one ECB rate hike in 2026, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of a potential cut before the conflict.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7158(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7197(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7066(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6996(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Wednesday as dollar gained ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that could give investors clues on how policymakers are weighing growth and inflation risks amid the Middle East conflict.All eyes are on the Fed's decision later on Wednesday, with attention on updated economic forecasts - particularly policymakers' "dot plot" of rate projections - where the risk is that they may no longer forecast any rate cuts this year.The Fed is expected to hold policy steady, but the debate now centres on whether the Iran conflict threatens slower growth, more persistent inflation, or a combination of both.Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, with markets also watching for any signal on whether he plans to remain on the board once his term as chair ends in May.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.71(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.60(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 157.52 (38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday, extending their rebound as easing oil prices boosted sentiment, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.06 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a one-month low on Wednesday as investors weighed a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, with elevated oil prices adding to inflation concerns.
Spot gold fell 2% to $4,903.19 per ounce as of 1216 GMT, its lowest level since February 18. U.S. gold futures for April delivery also dropped 2% to $4,907.40.
Brent crude turned higher as supply disruptions and fresh attacks on energy infrastructure outweighed pressure from Iraq resuming exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port.
Brent futures were up 61 cents, or 0.6%, at $104.02 a barrel by 1155 GMT on Wednesday, after falling to $100.34 earlier in the session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude , in contrast, dropped $1.28, or 1.3%, to $94.93.
