Market Roundup
• German 12-Month Bubill Auction 2.270%,1.985% previous
• German 6-Month Bubill Auction 2.121%, 1.986% previous
• EU Reserve Assets Total 2,046.00B, 1,987.13B previous
•Canada Housing Starts (Feb) 250.9K, 243.0K forecast, 240.1K previous
•Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•Canada CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%, 0.7% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.3%, 2.6% previous
•US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) -0.20, 4.00 forecast, 7.10 previous
•Canada CPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.8%, 2.3% previous
•Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.4% , 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous
•Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
•Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Jan) 114.4K, 127.3K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.339% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.097% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.217% previous
•14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar) 37 forecast,36 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of central bank meetings, overshadowed by the U.S.–Israel war with Iran. At least eight central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, are set to announce policy decisions this week in their first meetings since the Middle East conflict began. Markets will closely watch policymakers’ assessments of how rising oil prices could affect inflation and economic growth. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump urged allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, adding that his administration is in talks with seven countries on the matter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1454(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1421(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1373(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose for the first time in a week on Monday, but uncertainty over the longer-term impact on global growth and inflation from war in the Middle East kept it near three-month lows as investors favoured the U.S. dollar as a safe haven.The Bank of England delivers its decision on monetary policy on Thursday and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. Markets are close to pricing in one rate hike by the end of the year and investors want to know how closely this aligns with the views of Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers. Sterling was last up 0.2% on the day at $1.3248, narrowly above Friday's trough at $1.3222, the lowest since early December. UK jobs data later this week could help to shape expectations for the longer-term outlook for BoE policy. Employment is softening and wage growth, which has proven particularly resilient, has also started to show signs of abating. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3361(March 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3417(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3229(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3170(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as U.S. dollar eased allowing the Australian dollar to recover modestly. Market focus now turns to Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting, where investors broadly expect a 25 basis-point rate hike.The tone of the statement and forward guidance will be critical in determining whether policymakers signal further tightening or adopt a more cautious stance.Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after the United States struck Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island, a development that has raised fears of wider disruption in global energy supplies while prospects for a ceasefire remain uncertain. Oil markets remain the central focus, as the sharp rise in crude prices is fuelling concerns about renewed global inflation pressures, which in turn is pushing bond yields higher and keeping fixed-income markets under strain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7075(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7169(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6981(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6941(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged lower on Monday as the yen gained support after comments from Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on the recent sharp depreciation of the Japanese currency.Satsuki Katayama said on Monday the government is ready to take decisive action against excessive FX volatility .The warning from Satsuki Katayama comes as the yen nears ¥160 per dollar, putting traders on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Meanwhile, The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates Thursday but maintain a rate-hike bias as a weak yen and rising oil prices lift inflation risks. Investors will watch Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting briefing for clues on the timing of the next rate hike and how the Bank of Japan balances supporting the economy and managing inflation risks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.84(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.66(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.87 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks traded higher Monday as investors watched oil prices climb back above $100 per barrel while the Iran conflict entered its third week.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.64 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.25percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were mixed Monday, with Brent slightly higher and U.S. crude lower, amid Gulf oil attacks and calls by Donald Trump to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures were up 16 cents to $103.30 a barrel by 1137 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.50, or 1.5%, to $97.21.
Gold prices dipped Monday as rising oil costs fuelled inflation concerns and expectations of a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, reducing the appeal of the non-yielding asset.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $5,001.61 per ounce, as of 11:10 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 1.1% to $5,007.20.
