Market Roundup
• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Feb) 57.20%, 56.30% previous
• Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 4.10%, 4.10% forecast,3.85% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) 26.5forecast, 39.4 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar) -67.1 forecast, -65.9 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) 39.0 forecast, 58.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a slew of central bank meetings under the shadow of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. The surge in energy prices as war engulfs the Middle East is top of mind for central bankers. Deciding what to do about it is proving more complicated.The debate is a foretaste of what may be ahead for rate-setting committees this week at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, which will assess the global economic impact of the energy shock, though all are expected to remain on hold. The Bank for International Settlements has urged policymakers not to rush reactions to the energy price spike, calling it a textbook case of when to "look through" a supply shock.Markets are on edge, trying to price in the economic damage from U.S. President Donald Trump's war with Iran and the policy reaction it could trigger. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1520(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1620 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1404(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1368(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against dollar on Tuesday as investors assessed the economic fallout from the U.S.–Iran conflict and potential policy responses.Markets grew uneasy after U.S. allies declined to send warships through the Strait of Hormuz, dampening hopes of smoother energy flows.Rising oil prices from the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran have boosted inflation fears, driving a global rate repricing and strengthening the U.S. dollar. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed to everyone, while some vessels sailed through the critical strait.U.S. President Donald Trump repeated his call for nations to help unblock the Strait, and complained that none were willing to offer assistance.Central banks in Britain, the euro zone, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland, and Sweden also meet this week for the first time since the Iran war began. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3394(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3421(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3212(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3208(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Tuesday following the RBA move, as traders scaled back further hike expectations. Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate for a second consecutive month to curb inflation, but a close vote signaled that further rate hikes are uncertain.Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate by 25 bps, with a close vote highlighting uncertainty ahead. The RBA started a busy central bank week, as surging oil prices from Middle East tensions raise inflation risks and peers prepare to pause.. Rising oil prices from the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran have heightened inflation concerns and driven a global repricing of rate expectations.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7075(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7169(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6981(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6941(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Tuesday as yen weakened despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities on Tuesday. Japan’s finance minister said the government stands ready to act against forex volatility as the yen neared 160 per dollar.Meanwhie, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is accelerating toward the bank's 2% target, stressing that price rises must be matched by solid wage gains.The remarks came ahead of the central bank's two-day policy meeting ending on Thursday, where the board is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.75%.Rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict are adding inflation pressure and complicating the BOJ’s rate decisions, given Japan’s reliance on energy imports.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.84(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.66(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.87 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose early Tuesday, aiming for a second day of gains despite central bank risks and ongoing Middle East tensions.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.22% , Hang Seng was up at 0.24%, China A50 was up at 0.24%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose slightly as easing oil disruption fears supported prices, with focus on the conflict’s impact and upcoming central bank decisions.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $5,036.99 per ounce as of 0540 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 0.8% to $5,041.80.
Oil jumped over 2% as supply fears grew, with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut and allies declining tanker escorts.
Brent futures jumped $2.74, or 2.7%, to $102.95 a barrel by 0357 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.45, or 2.6%, to $95.95.
