Market Roundup
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Feb): 3.0%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (Feb): 46.0, 45.3 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (Feb): 43.9, 43.5 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Feb): 43.7, 44.7 previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (Feb): 50.4, 47.7 previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan): 0.6%, -0.1% forecast, -0.7% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan): 2.3%, 1.1% previous
•UK New Passenger Cars Registration (Feb): 90,100, 144,127 previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (Feb): 7.2%, 3.4% previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Feb): 44.5, 47.0 forecast, 46.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:30 U.S. Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan): -0.7% previous
•15:30 U.S. Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Jan): 0.4% previous
•15:30 U.S. Natural Gas Storage: -122Bforecast, -52B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro fell on Thursday as the escalating Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns. Tensions intensified after a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, while NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Turkey.The conflict deepened as the son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emerged as a leading successor, signaling Tehran may resist external pressure following the military campaign launched by the United States and Israel that has unsettled global markets.Investors now await United States weekly jobless claims later in the day and the February employment report on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1589(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1476(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined on Thursday as the deepening conflict in the Middle East kept investors nervous and fuelled a flight to safe-haven alternatives. Domestic factors have also soured sentiment towards the pound, as data last month showed sluggish economic growth in the UK in the final quarter of last year. Political pressures are in focus after Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party lost a local election in Manchester. He has also faced criticism over his stance on the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.Earlier this week, British finance minister Rachel Reeves delivered a budget update that showed that inflation and borrowing would be lower than expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased as investors assessed the impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. The U.S.–Iran war expanded following reports of military actions that heightened geopolitical tensions. The U.S. is trying to address energy supply risks amid rising Iran tensions, which could affect global markets. Australian household spending rose only 0.3% in January, following a 0.5% decline in the previous month, signaling weaker consumer demand. However, annual spending growth rose to 2.6%, the fastest pace since early 2023.Markets now see only a 20% chance of an RBA rate hike at the March 17 meeting, but fully price a move to 4.10% by May from the current 3.85% cash rate. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6960(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as the fallout from war in the Middle East roiled global markets and kept sentiment fragile. Markets remained on edge as the US–Israel war with Iran entered its sixth day after Iran launched a major missile barrage at Israel, forcing millions into bomb shelters amid ongoing conflict escalation.The spike in energy prices from the Middle East conflict has stoked inflation fears, potentially affecting rate outlooks for major central banks, including the Federal Reserve.Meanwhile, Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, moving closer to appointing a rate-cut supportive central bank leadership.Investors await United States weekly jobless claims data later in the day and the February employment report on Friday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower as the widening Middle East conflict dampened investor sentiment, while mixed corporate earnings further pressured markets.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.37 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, lifted by safe-haven demand amid an escalating war in the Middle East, though a stronger dollar and concerns around the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy capped gains.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $5,156.11 per ounce as of 1030 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 0.7% at $5,168.20.
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Thursday, extending gains as the escalating U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted oil supplies and shipping routes.
Brent crude was up $2.25, or 2.8%, at $83.65 per barrel by 1251 GMT, a fifth session of gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.56, or 3.4%, to $77.22.
